Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - National Championship Game

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Whew, thank God this tournament is almost over and done with. My pockets have really taken a hit. Just imagine if I would've put some real money down.

I have no one to blame but the odds-makers, the underdogs and the favorites. They all did me wrong.

Anyway, at least there's tonight. Yet another chance for me to end on a good note and resuscitate my self-esteem.

Record: 23-41-2

Final Four: 0-2

Monday, 4/6/15. National Championship: 

(1) Wisconsin -1 vs. (1) Duke, Indianapolis, IN, CBS

So, here we are. Two teams left standing and all those cliches to rattle off. But, this one actually should be great. Two of the four best teams throughout the season, and oh by the way, both teams are at the top of their games. Most people have only given Duke credit for this. Yes, the Blue Devils have been dominant the entire tournament, winning five games by an average of 17.6 points. However, it's hard to argue that any team is playing better than Wisconsin. The Badgers had to beat North Carolina, Arizona and all-mighty Kentucky to get here. Many have wondered whether Bo Ryan can get his team up for one more game, after their physically and emotionally taxing win Saturday night. Well, this "one more game" isn't some regular season game, it's the National Championship game. If you can walk, you can get up for this game. This contest features two of the top three offensively efficient teams in the country (Wisconsin, 1 and Duke, 3). Duke has been the better defensive team, especially during the tournament. That being said, this game will be a battle of wills rather than a battle of statistics. For me, it comes down to which team wants it more. Of course, both teams really want this game and are filled with winners, they wouldn't be here otherwise. But, the Badgers are the older, more experienced team that came into practice this season with this game in mind, having had their hearts broken last year. Kaminsky, Dekker and Jackson will pull every ounce of energy from their bodies in order to win this game. I don't expect Duke's freshmen to wilt, by any means (especially Tyus Jones, who is an absolute killer), I just expect Wisconsin to be just a little bit better and prevail in this true pick em game. 

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - Final Four

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Welp, we're here. The Final Four. You could not ask for more in terms of the quality of the teams and coaches that make up this year's field in Indianapolis.

As for the quality of my picks, let's just say there's a reason professional betters choose their action judiciously.

Anyway, team Blacketology is on a mission to finish this tournament off strong in order to provide the proper momentum going into 2016.

Record: 23-39-2

Elite 8: 1-3

Saturday, 4/4/15. National Semifinals: 

(7) Michigan State +5.5 vs. Duke, 6:09PM, Indianapolis, IN, TBS

These two met in mid November and Duke dominated. But, it goes without saying that this is a vastly different Michigan State team, because, well, they're coached by Tom Izzo. His teams always get better as the season progresses and occasionally (like every other year), they get so much better that they make a run at a National Championship. The Spartans beat Georgia, Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisville to get to this point. None of those teams are slouches. Unbeknownst to many, Izzo & co. are a top 15 offensive team, but still that gritty team on defense and the backboards we've all come to know and love. Duke is an explosive offensive team. They are young, but they have risen to meet the challenge of their competition perhaps more often than any team in the country. The Blue Devils' defensive effort has picked up significantly in the Tournament and is the reason for their relatively easy road to Indy. I like Duke to prevail, but 5.5 is just too much for me to give Izzo. Three and a half months later, it will be a game this time.

(1) Kentucky -4.5 vs. (1) Wisconsin, 8:49PM, Indianapolis, IN, TBS

I have been saying all post-season that Kentucky was being overvalued by the public, and thus Vegas, so I would be picking against the Big Blue Nation. That theory has pretty much held true, as Kentucky is 1-3 against the spread in this tournament. However, after Notre Dame pushed the Wildcats to the brink last weekend, it seems as if Vegas got a bit skittish. A 4.5 line for Kentucky would have been unheard of at the start of the Tournament. When the bracket was announced, many opined that Kentucky was likely to be a double-digit favorite throughout. So, the UK spread has come back down to earth and is actually where I think it should be. Kentucky is not unbeatable, as we were shown by lesser teams in the SEC and most recently by the Irish. Wisconsin may well be the second most dominant team this season. The Badgers ran through the Big Ten and beat North Carolina and Arizona in impressive fashion to get to Indianapolis. If you think Notre Dame was offensively equipped to give Kentucky a scare, Wisconsin is probably a bit more so. Bo Ryan's squad is the country's top rated team in terms of offensive efficiency, just ahead of the second ranked Irish. Having said all that, I'm taking Kentucky. John Calipari has been tremendous when given close to a week to prepare his squad, just ask Bob Huggins. With a 4.5 spread, that leaves me just enough room to predict a close game that Kentucky survives.

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - Elite 8

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

We witnessed two terrific college basketball games last night. Wisconsin elevated its already high level of play to run away from Arizona in the second half, while Kentucky rode their defense and Karl Anthony Towns and withstood a valiant effort from Notre Dame in a classic.

Don't look for a letdown today.

Record: 23-37-2

Yesterday: 1-1

Sunday, 3/29/15. Regional Finals: 

(4) Louisville +2 vs (7) Michigan State, 2:20PM, Syracuse, NY, CBS

Today's undercard is a classic match-up in its own right. Two of the best coaches of all-time link up for a chance to get their overachieving team to the Final Four. Neither was really supposed to be here, much less reach Indianapolis. The Spartans are a slight favorite because they are on one of their classic Izzo late-season runs. MSU's only two losses this month have come at the hands of Wisconsin, who is already Indy bound. However, Louisville hasn't been too shabby either. The Cardinals' only losses this March have been to Notre Dame and North Carolina. Rick Pitino's squad has relied almost solely on their top five defense all season, but they have suddenly received an offensive boost, just in the nick of time. In a true test of coaching wit, due to the one day to prepare, look for Pitino to work his magic and pull out a squeaker, thanks in part to the match-up zone.

(2) Gonzaga +2 vs (1) Duke, 5:05PM, Houston, TX, CBS

In tonight's main event, we have two heavyweights. Actually, two is selling this one short. The two coaches alone are heavyweights, in Coach K and Mark Few, but Jahlil Okafor, Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis likely qualify as well. These are two teams (among six others) who had typical 1-seed resumés all season. This is an even match-up statistically, as both teams are top five offensively and top 30 defensively. But, if match-ups make fights and basketball games, then the edge here looks to be with the Zags. Duke is highly reliant on Okafor and their other dynamic freshmen on the perimeter. Gonzaga has a slew of big men they can use to contain Okafor and they have the experience and skill in the backcourt (Pangos, Wesley and Bell are all seniors) to frustrate and contain Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow, while neutralizing Quinn Cook. I'm betting on Few to finally shut up his irrational critics and get to his first Final Four.

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - Elite 8

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

I was on my way to a pretty darn good betting Friday, until members of the Utah Utes men's basketball team proved unable to control their frustration. Down 5 (the line I had was Utah +6) and with 0.7 seconds to go, the Utes clawed and grabbed at Quinn Cook.

Of course, the refs had absolutely no choice but to call the foul and drag both teams back from their locker rooms in order to protect the integrity of the game. And, of course, Cook had no choice but to tease me by missing the first free throw, only to rip my heart out by making the second, in true Dukie fashion.

But, anyway...

Record: 22-36-2

Yesterday: 2-1-1

Saturday, 3/28/15. Regional Finals:

(2) Arizona -1.5 vs (1) Wisconsin, 6:09PM, Los Angeles, CA, TBS

For once, what we all thought would happen in the NCAA Tournament actually did happen. The 1 and 2 seeds took care of their business and will meet tonight in a rematch of an Elite Eight match-up from last year. In that game, Wisconsin won an overtime thriller, 64-63, led by Frank Kaminsky's 28 points and 11 rebounds. The key this year will be Sam Dekker. He will have to produce more than the 7 points he put up last year for Wisconsin to get to their 2nd straight Final Four. Arizona has been open about the revenge factor at work in this contest, which will only help the Cats in this evenly matched affair. It is Arizona's defense that separates the two teams and will propel Sean Miller to his first Final Four.

(3) Notre Dame +11 vs (1) Kentucky, 8:49PM, Cleveland, OH, TBS

Yeah, so, last time I bet against Kentucky they embarrassed West Virginia - and me - to the tune of a 78-39 obliteration. Don't blame me, I forgot the Mountaineers couldn't shoot/score in an open gym practice, much less against the best defensive college team in years. Notre Dame doesn't have that problem. They have two dynamic guards, likely to play at the next level, along with a determined, resourceful small forward and a decent big. It's the decent big that is doubtful to be enough to upset the Big Blue juggernaut. The biggest thing in favor of the Irish keeping this game relatively close is their lack of chatter. So far, they've been smart enough to avoid bold statements that could cause them to hide in bathroom stalls after the game. 

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - Sweet 16

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Well, things went a little better for me yesterday, as I was on-point with my Notre Dame pick. As for that thing I said about West Virginia covering, please forget that ever happened.

Record: 20-35-1

Yesterday: 2-2

Friday, 3/27/15. Regional Semifinals:

(2) Gonzaga -8.5 vs (11) UCLA, 7:15PM, Houston, TX, CBS

This might be the year that Mark Few and the Zags finally fulfill their dream of reaching a Final Four and I don't see the upstarts from L.A. disrupting that. Gonzaga rolled over a pretty good Iowa team in their last game and they won at UCLA rather easily way back in December. Yes, the Bruins are a different team than they were then, but they still don't have enough to deal with the Zags.

(4) Louisville -2.5 vs (8) NC State, 7:37PM, Syracuse, NY, TBS

The Wolfpack won the only meeting between the two this season, on the Cardinals' home turf. That came as a surprise at the time, but NC State has shown that that may not have been a fluke. However, the previous result will also provide additional focus and motivation to Rick Pitino and his squad. Pitino is pretty good even without additional help, especially in March. 

(5) Utah +6 vs (1) Duke, 9:45PM, Houston, TX, CBS

Duke is one of those "public teams" that gets a lot of support in Vegas no matter who they're playing. That said, this Blue Devils squad is legit and are the objective favorite to get to the Final Four out of the South region. They looked spectacular in their win over San Diego State last weekend, but Utah will be a different beast. The Utes, too, looked great last weekend, beating Georgetown. Utah has the size to bother Jahlil Okafor and the team defensive prowess to slow down Duke's perimeter attack. I think Duke just sneaks by here. 

(3) Oklahoma +2 vs (7) Michigan State, 10:07PM, Syracuse, NY, TBS

Hey, I know the Spartans are playing terrific basketball of late and Tom Izzo is great and you should never pick against him. But I like the firepower that the Sooners can throw at them with Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, TaShawn Thomas & company. It should be a defensive battle, but Oklahoma has proven they have the ability to win in a variety of ways. Look for Lon Kruger to move on.

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - 3/22/15

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Record: 17-26-1

Sunday, 3/22/15. Round of 32:

(2) Virginia -4.5 vs (7) Michigan State, 12:10PM, Charlotte, NC, CBS

The Spartans have been playing well for the last couple weeks, having only lost to Wisconsin in overtime. The Cavs have been playing well all year and the second best defense in the country should be able to slow Michigan State down. Look for UVA to avenge last year's Sweet 16 loss to the Spartans. 

(8) San Diego State +9 vs (1) Duke, 2:40PM, Charlotte, NC, CBS

The totally defensive dependent Aztecs putt up a whopping 76 points against St. John's on Friday. Not that you should expect a repeat, but Duke's defense is average at best. I would expect SDSU to give Duke's offense some trouble, maybe not to the tune of a victory, but a closer than expected game.

(2) Kansas -1.5 vs (7) Wichita State, 5:15PM, Omaha, NE, CBS

You know the story, Wichita State finally gets its shot at big bad Kansas. But, there are two sides to every story; Kansas gets its shot, too. The Jayhawks have been undervalued this year because they haven't been dominant, but they've been very good. The Shockers are pretty good in their own right, but look for Bill Self and company to make a statement. 

(3) Oklahoma -4 vs (11) Dayton, 6:10PM, Columbus, OH, TNT

There is no doubt who we all think the better team is. But, there's definitely doubt as to who will win this game. That's a credit to coach Archie Miller and his gritty Flyers. This should be a defensive struggle, since the strength of both teams is on that side of the floor. However, Oklahoma has more offensive weapons, so I'll take the Sooners and the points. 

(7) Iowa +6.5 vs (2) Gonzaga, 7:10PM, Seattle, WA, TBS

Besides a hiccup or maybe a regurgitation versus Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament, Iowa has been great over the last month. The Zags have only had two hiccups all season. Gonzaga is one of the better offensive teams in the country, but Iowa - on a good day - is capable of keeping up. Here's to hoping the Hawkeyes keep up. I'll take the points.

(1) Wisconsin -12 vs (8) Oregon, 7:45PM, Omaha, NE, TRU

Oregon (and coach Dana Altman) has been a nice story. But, did you see what happened when the Ducks went up against Arizona in the Pac 12 Championship? I see something similar today, much like Ohio State's fate against both Wisconsin and Arizona.

(4) Maryland pk vs (5) West Virginia, 8:40PM, Columbus, OH, TNT

This is definitely a pretty even match-up, as the line suggests. I'll take the Terps, based on Trimble and Wells as well as Maryland's better overall balance on both sides of the ball. 

(5) Northern Iowa -2 vs (4) Louisville, 9:40PM, Seattle, WA, TBS

Much like Butler/Notre Dame to end last night, this one should be another war of a defensive battle that will have all your favorite fake basketball media tweeting their dislike for the college game. I'll take UNI because I have some semblance of confidence that they will be able to make a couple shots.

Twitter: @Blacketologist 

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - 3/21/15

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Last night didn't go too well, as Davidson, St. John's and Providence basically laid an egg, while Gonzaga, Oklahoma and Wisconsin failed to cover big spreads.

Record: 13-22-1

Saturday, 3/21/15. Round of 32:

(14) UAB +5.5 vs (11) UCLA, 12:10PM, Louisville, KY, CBS

The Blazers are coming off the big upset of Iowa State and are obviously not the same team they were for most of the season. UCLA has looked solid lately, as well. Give me UAB getting points in what should be a nip and tuck game. 

(8) Cincinnati +16.5 vs (1) Kentucky, 2:40PM, Louisville, KY, CBS

I took Kentucky and the points in their first round hame versus Hampton and paid for it, mainly because they took it easy on the MEAC team in the 2nd half. I will likely bet against the Wildcats the rest of the way because they are overvalued by the public, which inflates the line. The Bearcats should be able to keep the pace slow and make it tough for Kentucky to score. The question is, will Cincy be able to score at all.

(2) Arizona -9.5 vs (10) Ohio State, 5:15PM, Portland, OR, CBS

Zona has been mighty impressive of late, having won 12 straight. They're too good on both ends of the floor for Ohio State to stay close with, IMHO.

(14) Georgia State +6.5 vs (6) Xavier, 6:10PM, Jacksonville, FL, TNT

Georgia State is riding high after R.J. Hunter's huge three and his father Ron's big fall. It'll be tough for the Musketeers to slow down that momentum, so I'm looking for a back and forth battle that again comes down to the last possession.

(1) Villanova -9.5 vs (8) NC State, 7:10PM, Pittsburgh, PA, TBS

Nova has been firing on all cylinders for the past 16 games or so. NC State is solid and capable, but the depth and versatility of the Wildcats should wear down the Wolfpack, eventually.

(4) Georgetown +4.5 vs (5) Utah, 7:45PM, Portland, OR, CBS

Though, the Utes had been struggling recently, they looked good in their win over S.F. Austin. The Hoyas looked pretty good themselves versus Eastern Washington. This is a game that could go either way, so I'll take points.

(4) North Carolina -4.5 vs (5) Arkansas, 8:40PM, Jacksonville, FL, TNT

Similar to Utah/Georgetown, this seems like an even match-up that could go either way. I just have more faith in the Tar Heels since they are the more tested team, coming out of the ACC. Regardless, it will be an up-and-down, entertaining game and I expect UNC to pull away at the end.

(6) Butler +5 vs (3) Notre Dame, 9:40PM, Pittsburgh, PA, TBS

This is a tough one. It's a classic offense versus defense match-up, that's likely to test the toughness of Notre Dame. Give me the Bulldogs, getting points, in what should be a nail-biter.


Twitter: @Blacketologist 

Dance Line$

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Tuesday, 3/17/15. First Four:

(16) Manhattan -9 vs (16) Hampton 6:40PM, Dayton, OH, TRU 

Gotta go with coach Steve Masiello and the Jaspers, here. They come from a much better conference and will turn Hampton over with their pressure. The Jaspers are a borderline unfair 16 seed.

(11) BYU -4 vs (11) Ole Miss 9:10PM, Dayton, OH, TRU

I'm a little weary of this one. I see this as a nail-biter, as both of these teams are great offensively and treat defense as an afterthought. I think the Cougars will win, so I'll eat the 4 points that come with them.

Twitter: @Blacketologist