"I Know the Game Like I'm Reffing It"















Saturday, March 22, 2014

South Region Round of 32 Preview

While there were a few upsets (none of which I officially picked), the South region remained pretty much intact, as the four top seeds advanced to the Round of 32.

It is here, however, where things are guaranteed to get interesting. As is the case throughout the bracket as a whole, there is little to no separation between the teams that are still playing.

This of course makes for some great basketball ahead and this weekend will be a figurative bloodbath with the Sweet 16 as the prize.

(1) Florida (33-2) vs. (9) Pittsburgh (26-9) Saturday, March 22, 12:15PM, Orlando, FL; CBS.

Background: The Gators were less than impressive in a 12-point win over a gritty Albany squad. Pittsburgh dominated Colorado from start to finish in a 29-point thrashing of the Buffaloes.

Difference Maker: Talib Zanna. The Pittsburgh forward continued his hot play Thursday, scoring 18 points on 6-7 shooting. If he can duplicate that production on Saturday, it could spell trouble for Billy Donovan & company.

Florida wins if: they play with a sense of urgency lacking versus Albany, and Scottie Wilbikin and Michael Frazier make shots.

Pittsburgh wins if: Zanna scores in the teens and neutralizes Patric Young defensively and on the backboards.

Prediction: Florida 63, Pittsburgh 61.

(3) Syracuse (28-5) vs. (11) Dayton (24-10) Saturday, March 22, 7:10PM, Buffalo, NY; TBS.

Background: The Cuse had no problem with Western Michigan in the first round (yes, I still call it the first round and refuse to play along) and rolled to a 77-53 victory. Dayton won a knock-down, grind-it-out slugfest with Ohio State on a game-winning lay up from Vee Sanford.

Difference Maker: Jerami Grant. Grant showed no sign of back pain Thursday while scoring 16 points and grabbing 5 rebounds. If Syracuse can count on those numbers moving forward, they become a title contender again.

Syracuse wins if: the big three of C.J. Fair, Tyler Ennis and Grant play well and Trevor Cooney hits a couple threes.

Dayton wins if: Syracuse shoots poorly and the Flyers are more proficient than the 3-13 they shot from three point range last time out.

Prediction: Syracuse 68, Dayton 63.

(2) Kansas (25-9) vs. (10) Stanford (22-12) Sunday, March 23, 12:15PM, St. Louis, MO; CBS.

Background: Stanford surprisingly controlled the contest with New Mexico throughout, stifling the Lobos with their length inside. The Jayhawks held off a game Eastern Kentucky squad behind 19 points from Andrew Wiggins.

Difference Maker: Perry Eliis. Ellis’s double-double was key to their Friday victory and he will need to be big again Sunday if the Jayhawks are going to reach the Sweet 16.

Kansas wins if: Tarik Black and Jamari Traylor combine to contribute more than 20 points and 10 rebounds again.

Stanford wins if: they can keep Kansas in the low 70s and Chasson Randle goes off.

Prediction: Kansas 82, Stanford 73.

(4) UCLA (27-8) vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin (30-2) Sunday, March 23, 7:10PM, San Diego, CA; TBS.

Background: Stephen F. Austin won their 28th straight game in unbelievable fashion, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat with a Larry Johnson-like 4-point play to force overtime. UCLA was more conventional in their victory over Tulsa, outscoring the Golden Hurricane by 12 in the second half.

Difference Maker: Jordan Adams. Adams was a beast again Friday, scoring 21 points and recording 8 rebounds. The Lumberjacks will need to corral him to have any chance.

UCLA wins if: they continue doing what they’re doing, by getting big time production from their entire rotation.

Stephen F. Austin wins if: Desmond Haymon and Jacob Parker continue to light it up and they get a little lucky again.

Prediction: UCLA 83, Stephen F. Austin 76.




Wednesday, March 19, 2014

South Region Breakdown

SOUTH

While everyone is either clamoring, complaining or crazy about the Midwest, it is the South region that may have the tournament’s biggest group of Final Four threats. UCLA, Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and of course Florida and Kansas, are all more than capable of winning four straight games. You may even sneak a peak at your buddy’s bracket and see that he has VCU penned in the Arlington section.

So, the point is the South will be no slouch for the team tough and lucky enough to escape it. It all starts Thursday (no disrespect to Albany and Mount St. Mary’s who are in Dayton, Tuesday).

(6) Ohio State (25-9) vs. (11) Dayton (23-10) Thursday, March 20, 12:15PM, Buffalo, NY; CBS.

Background: A battle for Ohio and between the Atlantic 10 and the Big Ten. Dayton has lost just two games in their last 12, both to St. Joseph’s, most recently in Brooklyn in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. The Buckeyes have won three of their last four since back-to-back losses at Penn State and at Indiana.

Difference Maker: Thad Matta. Matta has an NCAA Tournament record of 23-11, has been to two Final Fours and 6 Sweet 16s.

Ohio State wins if: they can keep the game in the 60s and hold Dayton to well under their season average of 73.4ppg.

Dayton wins if: Ohio State has a poor shooting night and Dayton shoots a high percentage from 3pt range.

Prediction: Ohio State

(8) Colorado (23-11) vs. (9) Pittsburgh (25-9) Thursday, March 20, 1:40PM, Orlando, FL; TBS

Background: This is a classic 8/9 match-up of solid teams who have been inconsistent and underwhelming throughout the season. Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Pittsburgh’s win versus North Carolina in the ACC Tournament was only the Panther’s second top 50 win.

Difference Maker: Spencer Dinwiddie. Prior to Dinwiddie’s season ending torn ACL injury, the Buffaloes were 14-2 and had beaten Kansas. Since his absence, Colorado has been a shell of its former self, but to their credit, remained solid enough to gain an NCAA Tournament bid.

Colorado wins if: they shoot a high percentage. Colorado is shooting under 40% in their last 5 games as well as in their neutral site games this year.

Pittsburgh wins if: they control the backboards. Both teams are solid rebounding the ball on the offensive and defensive ends. Pittsburgh will force Colorado into tough shots, the key will be to keep them off the offensive boards.

Prediction: Pittsburgh

(3) Syracuse (27-5) vs. (14) Western Michigan (22-9) Thursday, March 20, 2:45PM, Buffalo, NY; CBS

Background: The Cuse stay close to home to face the MAC champions. However, the Orange come in to the game having lost 5 of 7. Western Michigan has won 12 of 13, including 6 wins over top 100 RPI teams.

Difference Maker: David Brown. Brown leads the Broncos in scoring (19.4ppg) and dropped 32 on Toledo in the MAC championship game.

Syracuse wins if: they get off to a fast start and get solid offensive performances from C.J. Fair and Tyler Ennis.

Western Michigan wins if: Brown can have a repeat of his MAC championship performance, particularly from 3-point range where he was 5-11, and if the Broncos can somehow hold their own on the backboards.

Prediction: Syracuse

(1) Florida (32-2) vs. (16) Albany (18-4)/Mt. St. Mary’s (16-16) Thursday, March 20, 4:10PM, Orlando, FL; TBS

Background: The #1 overall seed, winners of 26 straight games, takes on one of the worst teams in the field.

Difference Maker: Scottie Wilbekin. Wilbekin (13.0ppg, 3.8apg) is the senior leader of the Gators and will not let his team lose to a 16 seed.

Florida wins if: two starters avoid tearing a major ligament while exiting the team bus.

Florida loses if: see above.

Prediction: Florida

(7) New Mexico (27-6) vs. (10) Stanford (21-12) Friday, March 21, 1:40PM, St. Louis, MO; TBS

Background: The Lobos are one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 15 of 17 and coming off a Mountain West tournament championship. Johnny Dawkins finally has Stanford back in the big dance, but has been inconsistent, with big wins and bad losses.

Difference Maker: Cameron Bairstow. If you don’t know this name, you better get familiar. Bairstow has been the beast for the Lobos, averaging 20.3ppg and 7.4rpg while shooting 56% at Power Forward. Stanford will have to coral him to have a chance.

New Mexico wins if: Bairstow, Kendall Williams and Alex Kirk get their averages and are able to control the game.

Stanford wins if: they tighten up their defense and get an A game from leading scorer Chasson Randle (18.7ppg).

Prediction: New Mexico

(2) Kansas (24-9) vs. Eastern Kentucky (22-9) Friday, March 21, 4:10PM, St. Louis, MO; TBS

Background: Kansas has had a solid season versus the country’s strongest schedule, but come into this game without the services of highly touted freshman big man, Joel Embiid. However, they do still have Andrew Wiggins. The underrated Eastern Kentucky squad is on a 7-game winning streak, including a win versus NCAA Tournament stalwart, Belmont.

Difference Maker: Andrew Wiggins. The freshman phenom has been on a tear lately and he may just use this big stage to take his game to yet another level.

Kansas wins if: Wiggins & company don’t tighten up under the pressure and they play their normal game, as well as limit their turnovers.

Eastern Kentucky wins if: Kansas has an off day and Eastern Kentucky remains hot from behind the arc, where they have been at a plus 40% clip over their past 5 games.

Prediction: Kansas

(5) VCU (26-8) vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin (29-2) Friday, March 21, 7:27PM, San Diego, CA; Tru TV

Background: VCU turned it on at the end of the season, but then lost 6th-man Melvin Johnson to a season ending knee injury and subsequently lost in the Atlantic 10 final to St. Joseph’s. Stephen F. Austin has won 27 straight games playing at a slow, deliberate pace, quite the opposite of VCU.

Difference Maker: Desmond Haymon. The Lumberjacks’ senior guard must have a big game, similar to the 27-point game he had in the semifinals of the Southland tournament.

VCU wins if: they can speed up Stephen F. Austin and turn them over with their vaunted “havoc” pressure defense.

Stephen F. Austin wins if: they can handle VCU’s pressure and play at their own pace. The Lumberjacks have four starters who average double figures and they will need all four to step up in a balanced fashion.

Prediction: Stephen F. Austin

(4) UCLA (26-8) vs. (13) Tulsa (21-12) Friday, March 21, 9:57PM, San Diego, CA; Tru TV

Background: UCLA come in on a high note, after winning the PAC-12 tournament with an inspired performance against top seed Arizona. However, they also lost at lowly Washington State less than two weeks ago. Tulsa coach Danny Manning has his team on an 11-game winning streak and is back in the tournament that made him legendary.

Difference Maker: Norman Powell. We know Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams will show up for the Bruins, but they will need Powell to play the way he did during the Pac-12 tournament in order to be successful moving forward.

UCLA will win if: they get offensive production from Powell and Zach LaVine and hold their own defensively and on the boards.

Tulsa will win if: their improved defense can slow down UCLA’s offense and they can win the rebound battle.

Prediction: Tulsa









Sunday, March 16, 2014

FINAL BRACKETOLOGY 3/16/14

FINAL BRACKETOLOGY 3/16/14


*Automatic bids in italics

1 SEEDS: Florida; Arizona; Wichita State; Virginia.

2 SEEDS: Michigan; Wisconsin; Kansas; Iowa State.

3 SEEDS: Duke; Louisville; Syracuse; Villanova.

4 SEEDS: Creighton; Michigan State; UCLA; San Diego State.

5 SEEDS: Cincinnati; Baylor; VCU; North Carolina.

6 SEEDS: Connecticut; Ohio State; New Mexico; Oklahoma.

7 SEEDS: Texas; Kentucky; Massachusetts; Memphis.

8 SEEDS: Oregon; George Washington; Saint Louis; Kansas State.

9 SEEDS: Oklahoma State; Colorado; Stanford; St. Joseph’s.

10 SEEDS: Pittsburgh; Gonzaga; Iowa; Providence.

11 SEEDS: Arizona State; Dayton; SMU; Tennessee vs. Florida State.

12 SEEDS: Nebraska vs. Xavier; Harvard; North Dakota State; Stephen F. Austin.

13 SEEDS: Tulsa; Manhattan; New Mexico State; Mercer.

14 SEEDS: Delaware; Western Michigan; LA Lafayette; NC Central.

15 SEEDS: Eastern Kentucky; American; Wisconsin Milwaukee; Wofford.

16 SEEDS: Weber State; Coastal Carolina; Albany vs. Cal Poly; Mount St. Mary’s vs. Texas Southern.


LAST FOUR BYES: Iowa; Arizona State; Dayton; SMU.

LAST FOUR IN: Tennessee; Nebraska; Xavier; Florida State.

FIRST FOUR OUT: BYU; Minnesota; California; Arkansas.

NEXT FOUR OUT: St. John’s; Southern Miss; NC State; Georgetown.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: Big 12 (7); Big Ten (6); Pac-12 (6); Atlantic 10 (6); ACC (6); AAC (5); SEC (3); Big East (4); Mountain West (2).


Jamal Murphy has been making tournament predictions since 2010. He will be updating his predictions frequently until the Committee’s selection on Sunday, March 16th.

Please feel free to contact Jamal via Twitter: @Blacketologist



Saturday, March 15, 2014

BLACKETOLOGY 3/16/14

As of games through Saturday, March 15, 2014.

WARNING: The predicted field/seeding is highly likely to change from day to day or minute to minute.

*Automatic bids in italics

1 SEEDS: Florida; Arizona; Wichita State; Michigan.

2 SEEDS: Wisconsin; Kansas; Iowa State; Duke.

3 SEEDS: Syracuse; Creighton; Villanova; Louisville.

4 SEEDS: Virginia; Michigan State; UCLA; San Diego State;

5 SEEDS: Cincinnati; Baylor; VCU; North Carolina.

6 SEEDS: Connecticut; Ohio State; New Mexico; Oklahoma.

7 SEEDS: Texas; Kentucky; Massachusetts; Memphis.

8 SEEDS: Oregon; George Washington; Saint Louis; Kansas State.

9 SEEDS: Oklahoma State; Colorado; Stanford; Pittsburgh.

10 SEEDS: Gonzaga; St. Joseph’s; Iowa; Providence.

11 SEEDS: Arizona State; Dayton; SMU; Tennessee vs. Florida State.

12 SEEDS: Nebraska vs. Xavier; Harvard; North Dakota State; Stephen F. Austin.

13 SEEDS: Tulsa; Manhattan; New Mexico State; Georgia State.

14 SEEDS: Mercer; Delaware; Western Michigan; NC Central.

15 SEEDS: Eastern Kentucky; American; Wisconsin Milwaukee; Wofford.

16 SEEDS: Weber State; Coastal Carolina; Albany vs. Cal Poly; Mount St. Mary’s vs. Texas Southern.


LAST FOUR IN: Tennessee; Nebraska; Xavier; Florida State.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Minnesota; BYU; California; Arkansas.

NEXT FOUR OUT: St. John’s; Georgetown; NC State; Missouri.

DROPPED OUT: Minnesota.

NEW IN: Providence.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: Big 12 (7); Big Ten (6); Pac-12 (6); Atlantic 10 (6); ACC (6); AAC (5); SEC (3); Big East (4); Mountain West (2).


Jamal Murphy has been making tournament predictions since 2010. He will be updating his predictions frequently until the Committee’s selection on Sunday, March 16th.

Note: Conference leaders are determined by the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by the higher RPI ranking, or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.

Please feel free to contact Jamal via Twitter: @Blacketologist