"I Know the Game Like I'm Reffing It"















Showing posts with label Betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Betting. Show all posts

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - Final Four

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Welp, we're here. The Final Four. You could not ask for more in terms of the quality of the teams and coaches that make up this year's field in Indianapolis.

As for the quality of my picks, let's just say there's a reason professional betters choose their action judiciously.

Anyway, team Blacketology is on a mission to finish this tournament off strong in order to provide the proper momentum going into 2016.


Record: 23-39-2

Elite 8: 1-3

Saturday, 4/4/15. National Semifinals: 

(7) Michigan State +5.5 vs. Duke, 6:09PM, Indianapolis, IN, TBS

These two met in mid November and Duke dominated. But, it goes without saying that this is a vastly different Michigan State team, because, well, they're coached by Tom Izzo. His teams always get better as the season progresses and occasionally (like every other year), they get so much better that they make a run at a National Championship. The Spartans beat Georgia, Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisville to get to this point. None of those teams are slouches. Unbeknownst to many, Izzo & co. are a top 15 offensive team, but still that gritty team on defense and the backboards we've all come to know and love. Duke is an explosive offensive team. They are young, but they have risen to meet the challenge of their competition perhaps more often than any team in the country. The Blue Devils' defensive effort has picked up significantly in the Tournament and is the reason for their relatively easy road to Indy. I like Duke to prevail, but 5.5 is just too much for me to give Izzo. Three and a half months later, it will be a game this time.

(1) Kentucky -4.5 vs. (1) Wisconsin, 8:49PM, Indianapolis, IN, TBS

I have been saying all post-season that Kentucky was being overvalued by the public, and thus Vegas, so I would be picking against the Big Blue Nation. That theory has pretty much held true, as Kentucky is 1-3 against the spread in this tournament. However, after Notre Dame pushed the Wildcats to the brink last weekend, it seems as if Vegas got a bit skittish. A 4.5 line for Kentucky would have been unheard of at the start of the Tournament. When the bracket was announced, many opined that Kentucky was likely to be a double-digit favorite throughout. So, the UK spread has come back down to earth and is actually where I think it should be. Kentucky is not unbeatable, as we were shown by lesser teams in the SEC and most recently by the Irish. Wisconsin may well be the second most dominant team this season. The Badgers ran through the Big Ten and beat North Carolina and Arizona in impressive fashion to get to Indianapolis. If you think Notre Dame was offensively equipped to give Kentucky a scare, Wisconsin is probably a bit more so. Bo Ryan's squad is the country's top rated team in terms of offensive efficiency, just ahead of the second ranked Irish. Having said all that, I'm taking Kentucky. John Calipari has been tremendous when given close to a week to prepare his squad, just ask Bob Huggins. With a 4.5 spread, that leaves me just enough room to predict a close game that Kentucky survives.


Sunday, March 29, 2015

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - Elite 8


This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

We witnessed two terrific college basketball games last night. Wisconsin elevated its already high level of play to run away from Arizona in the second half, while Kentucky rode their defense and Karl Anthony Towns and withstood a valiant effort from Notre Dame in a classic.

Don't look for a letdown today.


Record: 23-37-2

Yesterday: 1-1

Sunday, 3/29/15. Regional Finals: 

(4) Louisville +2 vs (7) Michigan State, 2:20PM, Syracuse, NY, CBS

Today's undercard is a classic match-up in its own right. Two of the best coaches of all-time link up for a chance to get their overachieving team to the Final Four. Neither was really supposed to be here, much less reach Indianapolis. The Spartans are a slight favorite because they are on one of their classic Izzo late-season runs. MSU's only two losses this month have come at the hands of Wisconsin, who is already Indy bound. However, Louisville hasn't been too shabby either. The Cardinals' only losses this March have been to Notre Dame and North Carolina. Rick Pitino's squad has relied almost solely on their top five defense all season, but they have suddenly received an offensive boost, just in the nick of time. In a true test of coaching wit, due to the one day to prepare, look for Pitino to work his magic and pull out a squeaker, thanks in part to the match-up zone.

(2) Gonzaga +2 vs (1) Duke, 5:05PM, Houston, TX, CBS

In tonight's main event, we have two heavyweights. Actually, two is selling this one short. The two coaches alone are heavyweights, in Coach K and Mark Few, but Jahlil Okafor, Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis likely qualify as well. These are two teams (among six others) who had typical 1-seed resumés all season. This is an even match-up statistically, as both teams are top five offensively and top 30 defensively. But, if match-ups make fights and basketball games, then the edge here looks to be with the Zags. Duke is highly reliant on Okafor and their other dynamic freshmen on the perimeter. Gonzaga has a slew of big men they can use to contain Okafor and they have the experience and skill in the backcourt (Pangos, Wesley and Bell are all seniors) to frustrate and contain Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow, while neutralizing Quinn Cook. I'm betting on Few to finally shut up his irrational critics and get to his first Final Four.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Last Night's Recap - Tonight's Game To Watch

Last Night's Recap:

Big Wins:

St. John's at Providence, 83-70. - The Johnnies got their first Big East win of the season (now 1-3) and did so in a tough spot. Could this be the start of a Red Storm re-brewing?

Baylor vs. Iowa State, 74-73. - The Bears finally got that big win they were looking for, but it wasn't easy. They will need a solid road win or two to be considered a legitimate tourney team.

LSU at Mississippi, 75-71. - The Tigers, now 2-1 in the SEC, got their second league road win in a spot where they could have easily slipped up. LSU could be on the road to legitimacy.

SMU at Temple, 60-55. - The Mustangs have now won three straight and 11 of their last 12. They are 4-1 in the AAC and collected a nice road win over a fellow AAC contender.

San Diego State at Wyoming, 60-52. - The Aztecs are now 3-1 in the Mountain West, after a bit of a shaky stretch in November/December. They now may be able to lay claim to being the conference's best, after a nice road win versus an upstart.

Bad Losses:

Mississippi - Coming off of a strong performance in a loss at Kentucky and a nice win versus South Carolina, Ole Miss needed another solid home win to keep the momentum going. They could not get it done against LSU, a team in a similar position.

Wyoming - this was a bad loss only because they had a chance to claim legitimacy with a win over nationally respected SDSU. The loss throws shade on the Cowboys, who need to take advantage of their home opportunities versus tournament caliber opponents.

Tonight's Game To Watch:

Cincinnati (11-4) at Memphis (9-6) 7PM, Memphis, TN, ESPN2

There isn't much to choose from tonight, but this is a big game in the AAC. The Bearcats have won four of their last five, are 2-1 in league play, and can't afford to drop a game against a team they should probably beat, home or away. Memphis (2-2, AAC) has been shaky all season - by their standards - but has played slightly better of late. Prediction: Cincinnati 59, Memphis 54.

Other games of note...

Colorado (9-6) at #12 Arizona (14-2) 9PM, Tucson, AZ, ESPN2
Nebraska (10-6) at #8 Wisconsin (15-2) 9PM, Madison, WI, ESPN
#6 Utah (12-2) at Arizona State (8-8) 10PM, Tempe, AZ, FS1

Other Top 25 Games:

#3 Gonzaga (15-1) at Pepperdine (10-5) 10:30PM, Malibu, CA

Vegas Pick (4-3):

BYU -9 at Pacific 11PM