St. John’s Still a Work In Progress, But Better

St. John’s headlined the Legend’s Classic this week and took care of business, beating California 82-79 Monday night and outlasting VCU 87-86 in overtime last night.

The Red Storm (5-0) were far from flawless in their two victories. It took them until the last seconds of regulation to finish off Cal - last place in the PAC 12 last season and picked to finish last again this season - and needed overtime and multiple clutch shots from Shamorie Ponds to get by a VCU squad picked to finish 5^th in the Atlantic 10.

The Johnnies are a talented, if small, offensive unit led by the junior Ponds and junior returnees Marvin Clark II and Justin Simon. Newcomers Mustapha Heron, LJ Figueroa and Mikey Dixon give St. John’s an offensively talented nucleus that should be able to play with anyone in the country.

6-foot-9 Center, Sedee Keita, the Red Storm’s lone true big on the roster, is out with a knee injury and is expected back in five weeks.

This week at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, St. John’s showed off their offensive talent and versatility, but also showed that they may not yet be ready for prime time. Defensively, they allowed unheralded Cal to shoot 57% from the field, including 44% from beyond the 3-point line. While Cal made some tough shots, St. John’s also exhibited “Swiss cheese defense” (shout out to Clyde Frazier), allowing way too many easy forays into the paint and uncontested layups.

The following night, the defense was improved versus VCU, but mental lapses often allowed the Rams to stay in the game and take leads late in regulation and overtime.

However, a win is a win is a win. And maybe those preseason prognostications were wrong and Cal and VCU will prove to be better than was thought.

St. John's coach Chris Mullin addressing the media after the Red Storm's victory over VCU.

“My thing is this, we played two really good teams that played well, they made shots,” St. John’s coach Chris Mullin said after the game. “I mean from a coach’s standpoint sometimes you think you can play better defense, you can contest better and that’s all true, but they still gotta make them… So give our opponents a lot of credit, but to our credit, we were in some tough situations the last two nights.”

“We fought back and didn’t hang our heads,” Mullin continued. “That’s really where the experience comes in. They truly believe they can win the game and I don’t think that was the fact the last two years.”

Yes, it is easy to get caught up in the influx of talent and experience now on the Red Storm’s roster and expect them to easily win the games they are favored in. But, teams take time to build and there is no doubt progress is being made. As Mullin eluded to, it is highly likely that St. John’s would have lost one or both of those games last year.

Ponds, who scored 32 and 35 points in the two wins respectively, made every big shot and big play the Johnnies needed. He looks even better than last year and is clearly one of the better guards in the country. Heron is a big time player and Figueroa is better than advertised.

St. John’s is not there yet. They are not an NCAA Tournament team yet. They are not the best team in the Big East, yet. But, the pieces are there, the experience is there and most importantly, the belief is there.

2015-16 Big East Preview

Despite finishing the 2014-15 season with the third highest conference RPI, Big East conference teams begin this season with a familiar tag: underrated.

Some might even call it disrespected.

Of course, much of it has to do with the Big East’s lack of recent success in March. Villanova stormed through the regular season and were awarded a number one seed by the selection committee, only to be upset by NC State in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 32. A disappointment like that can easily cause people to forget all of the big non-conference wins the league accumulated earlier during the season.

However, Nova coach Jay Wright has other theories, as well.

“There are a lot of forces out there in the media and in other conferences that are promoting that,” Wright said about the perception that the Big East is a diminished conference. “I think over time you're going to see the consistency of a lot of teams in the tournament – some of us have to break through – but, great traditional programs doing what they do every year and I think we’ll just wear people out.”

Regardless, this season figures to be another successful one. Teams such as the aforementioned Villanova, as well as Georgetown, Butler and Xavier return a lot of talent and are sure to be formidable. In addition, Marquette and Seton Hall possess promising young players who look ready to explode on the scene, giving both programs a chance to reclaim past glory.

Oh, and I have yet to mention the league could very well have the best player in the country, Kris Dunn from Providence.

So, expect the Big East to show very well versus non-conference foes again this season and for pundits to express shock and awe. Things probably won’t be as smooth within the conference, as the 10-team round-robin promises to be a grind.

But, again, the league’s success and reputation will ultimately be judged on its success in March. Expect six teams to be chosen for that challenge.

ALL CONFERENCE TEAM:

G – Kris Dunn, Jr., Providence
G – D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Sr., Georgetown
G – Billy Garrett, Jr., DePaul
G – Kellen Dunham, Sr., Butler
G – Isaiah Whitehead, So., Seton Hall

PLAYER OF THE YEAR:

Kris Dunn, Jr., Providence

NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR:

Henry Ellenson, Fr., Marquette

COACH OF THE YEAR:

John Thompson III, Georgetown


PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:

Coach Jay Wright, Josh Hart and Ryan Arcidiacono celebrate last season's Big East Championship.                           

1. Villanova – They won't be as dominant as they were last year, but the Wildcats are the clear favorite once again. They are typically guard-heavy again this year, but big man Daniel Ochefu will have to play a more prominent role. Best Player: Ryan Arcidiacono. Key Player: Daniel Ochefu.

2. Georgetown – The Hoyas have been overlooked by most preseason prognosticators, but it won’t take long for the country to take notice. With the return of DSR and some extremely talented sophomores, Hoya Saxa will challenge Nova for the Big East title. Best Player: D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera. Key Player: Isaac Copeland.

3. Butler – They surprised everyone last season by using grit and guile to tie for second place in the Big East. They will be no surprise this year with two of the league’s best players still on their roster. There is a clear three-team top tier this season and the Bulldogs are in it. Best Player: Kellen Dunham. Key Player: Andrew Chrabascz.

4. Xavier – The Musketeers actually played deeper into the NCAA Tournament than any other Big East team last season, reaching the Sweet 16. They lost a couple of key guys, but the cupboard is far from bare. Look for Xavier to be a credible threat to the league’s top three. Best Player: Trevon Bluiett. Key Player: Myles Davis.

5. Providence – The Friars lost a lot in production and experience from last season’s team. But, they still have some talent, including a candidate for National Player of the Year, in Kris Dunn. Coach Ed Cooley is a proven winner, so don’t expect Providence to dip. Best Player: Kris Dunn. Key Player: Jalen Lindsey.

6. Marquette – Despite a 13-19 record, Marquette was a hard-nosed, tough out last year in Coach Steve Wojciechowski’s first year. This season, Wojo comes equipped with a top ten recruiting class, including a top 10 prospect in 6’10, Henry Ellenson. Look for the Golden Eagles to be much-improved and sneak into the NCAA Tournament. Best Player: Henry Ellenson. Key Player: Luke Fischer.

7. Seton Hall – The Pirates are a bit of a wild card in the Big East this season. They have a very talented sophomore class, including guard Isaiah Whitehead, who looks primed to have a breakout season. However, the players and coach have yet to prove they are capable of putting together a successful season. If this prediction is correct, this could be coach Kevin Willard’s last season in South Orange. Best Player: Isaiah Whitehead. Key Player: Derrick Gordon.

8. DePaul – The Blue Demons have been the laughing stock of the league for longer than I care to remember. Former coach Dave Leitao has returned for a second go at it. He actually has some talent to work with, as three starters return. Look for DePaul to be more competitive, but in the tough Big East, it will be difficult to move up the standings. Best Player: Billy Garrett Jr. Key Player: Tommy Hamilton IV.

9. Creighton – A year after Doug McDermott lit up the country, including the Big East, and carried the Blue Jays to a surprisingly successful first season in the conference, Creighton came way back down to earth last season. They played tough and lost many close games, but four Big East wins is four Big East wins. Their roster turns over a great deal again this year, so expect more hard times, while still being a tough beat. Best Player: James Milliken. Key Player: Cole Huff.

10. St. John's – Johnnies’ legend Chris Mullin takes over at his alma mater with one heck of a rebuilding job, at least from a roster perspective. The Red Storm have three players returning from Steve Lavin’s 2014-15 NCAA Tournament team and none of them contributed significantly. Mullin has been quoted as saying he has experienced both winning and losing. He will likely lean on the latter this season. Best Player: Durand Johnson. Key Player: ?

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - 3/20/15

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Record: 8-12

Friday, 3/20/15. First Round:

(2) Kansas -9.5 vs (15) New Mexico State, 12:15PM, Omaha, NE, CBS

The Big 12 had it pretty rough yesterday. Kansas is different, though. After a poor tournament last year, expect the Jayhawks to be focused today.

(10) Georgia +7 vs (7) Michigan State, 12:40PM, Charlotte, NC, TRU

Funny that Michigan State, known for defense, has actually been a better offensive team than defensive. Georgia is the more gritty defensive team this year, so the score should be low and close. 

(12) Wyoming +6 vs (5) Northern Iowa, 1:40PM, Seattle, WA, TBS

This will be another low scoring game, as both teams take their time on offense, to say the least. I'm high on UNI, but Wyoming is just as experienced and has been playing well of late. Look for another close one.

(12) Buffalo +4.5 vs (5) West Virginia, 2:10PM, Columbus, OH, TNT

I've been calling for this upset since the bracket came out, so I'm not stopping here. The Bulls are underrated and have played well versus tougher teams than West Virginia. I've never truly been sold on the Mountaineers this season.

(10) Indiana +6 vs (7) Wichita State, 2:45PM, Omaha, NE, CBS

This is one of the more intriguing match-ups of the first round. Indiana is reliant on the 3-point shot, but their threes will likely be contested today. Wichita State is solid on both ends of the floor, but I see this coming down to a play or two at the end.

(15) Belmont +17 vs (2) Virginia, 3:10PM, Charlotte, NC, TRU

On paper, the Bruins are a scary 15 seed, because of their history and their shooting prowess. Belmont shoots and hits a lot of threes, so a hot performance could keep them in this game. The flip side is, UVA is the best defensive team in the country and good enough offensively to exploit Belmont's defensive weaknesses.

(4) Louisville -8 vs (13) UC Irvine, 4:10PM, Seattle, WA, TBS

Louisville has struggled to live up to expectations this year, primarily because they can't shoot. Their defense has never been a problem. I don't see the Anteaters putting many points on the board.

(13) Valparaiso +5.5 vs (4) Maryland, 4:40PM, Columbus, OH, TNT

This is a close game/upset waiting to happen, unless Dez Wells and Melo Trimble can find a way to take over the game.

(9) Oklahoma State +3 vs (8) Oregon, 6:50PM, Omaha, NE, TBS

The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team and should benefit from playing a team outside of the Big 12 for the first time in a long time. Plus, the Big 12 needs some good news today.

(1) Duke -22.5 vs (16) Robert Morris, 7:10PM, Charlotte, NC, CBS

I have been impressed with Bobby Mo in their last three games, particularly with their leading scorer, Lucky Jones. But, when Duke puts its mind to it, they can be lethal. I see one of those performances tonight.

(10) Davidson +2 vs (7) Iowa, 7:20PM, Seattle, WA, TNT

This will be another good one. Davidson is one of the better offensive teams in the country, as well as fun to watch. Iowa is solid on both sides of the ball, but has been wildly inconsistent this year. Look for the Wildcats to drain a lot of threes to make up for the size differential.

(3) Oklahoma -13.5 vs (14) Albany, 7:27PM, Columbus, OH, TRU

The Sooners are one of my sleeper picks to get to the Final Four. I don't see Albany being too big of a roadblock.

(1) Wisconsin -20.5 vs (16) Coastal Carolina, 9:20PM, Omaha, NE, TBS

The Badgers have been quite rude to lesser competition all season. The Chanticleers are in for a long night.

(9) St. John's +4 vs (8) San Diego State, 9:40PM, Charlotte, NC, CBS

This will be a grind. SDSU is one of the best defensive teams in the country, while the Johnnies aren't too shabby either. St. John's will miss big man Chris Obekpa, but only on defense. Their guards should at least keep them in the game.

(2) Gonzaga -18 vs (15) North Dakota State, 9:50PM, Seattle, WA, TNT

Look for the Zags to make a statement to their NCAA Tournament non-believers.

(6) Providence -3 vs (11) Dayton, 9:57PM, Columbus, OH, TRU

Dayton is one of those teams that you must finish off and kill because they won't kill themselves. So, it won't be easy for the Friars, but Dunn, Henton & company have shown to be hungry late in the season. Look for Providence to survive a knock-down, drag-out affair.


Twitter: @Blacketologist 

Eye On The Tourney: Saturday's Games To Watch

There is a huge slate of games of various levels of importance today. As is always the case in February, there are high seeds, low seeds and any seeds at stake. Let's take a look...

HIGH STAKES/HIGH SEEDS

#20 Baylor (16-5, 5-4) at #16 West Virginia (18-4, 6-3) 12PM, Morgantown, WV, ESPNU

In a matter of weeks, Baylor went from unproven and overrated (at least in my mind), to a solid 4 seed at the moment. The Mountaineers are looking like a 6 seed and a home win over the Bears could inch them even higher. Prediction: West Virginia 69, Baylor 67.

#9 Notre Dame (21-3, 9-2) at #3 Duke (19-3, 6-3) 1PM, Durham, NC, CBS

I have Duke as a 1 seed, based in part on their three monster road wins at Wisconsin, Louisville and Virginia. It will not be easy for the Blue Devils to stay on that 1 line with tough games like today's commonplace in the ACC. Notre Dame is in the 3 seed range and today's game presents only upside for the Irish. Prediction: Duke 81, Notre Dame 75.

Providence (17-6, 7-3) at Xavier (14-9, 5-6) 1PM, Cincinnati, OH, FS1

Believe it or not, this game is more about high seeds than the bubble. Providence has surged to 5 seed territory after their road win at Georgetown; and despite Xavier's bad home loss to Creighton Wednesday, they remain pretty solidly in the field, for now. Prediction: Xavier 72, Providence 66.

#8 Kansas (19-3, 8-1) at Oklahoma State (14-7, 5-5) 2PM, Stillwater, OK, ESPN

While most of the country looks at the Jayhawks as merely a top 10 team as their ranking suggests, their resume looks much more like a 1 seed. In order to stay there, Kansas will have to go into Stillwater and beat a tough Cowboys team, who is extra tough at home. Oklahoma State could improve their already surprising 6 seed status. Prediction: Oklahoma State 68, Kansas 65.

#22 Georgetown (15-7, 7-4) at #7 Villanova (20-2, 7-2) 2PM, Philadelphia, PA, FOX

The Hoyas have been a bit of a tease so far this season. They look like a top 4 seed one day, then an 8 seed the next. That's why they currently find themselves in the 6 seed vicinity. They head into hostile Philly territory with a mad Villanova team looking for payback for the 20-point beat down Georgetown handed them a few weeks back. Nova's a 2 seed for now and a home win today would help solidify that. Prediction: Villanova 77, Georgetown 70.

#10 Louisville (19-3, 7-2) at #4 Virginia (20-1, 8-1) 7PM, Charlottesville, VA, ESPN

It's back to big boy business with this one, as Virginia looks to maintain its 1 seed status and Louisville seeks to improve its current 3 seed resume. Prediction: Virginia 64, Louisville 60.

BUBBLE TROUBLE

Tennessee (13-8, 5-4) at Georgia (14-7, 5-4) 12PM, Athens, GA, ESPN2

The SEC is bubble friendly this year and Tennessee put itself on the wrong side of the bubble with their recent home loss to Mississippi State. A win at Georgia would put the Vols right back in the discussion and also hurt Georgia's current 8 seed standing. Prediction: Georgia 63, Tennessee 55.

Illinois (15-8, 5-5) at Michigan State (15-7, 6-3) 12PM, East Lansing, MI, ESPN

The Illini are on the outskirts of the bubble, but aren't out of it. They'll need a couple of big wins going forward to go along with their previous good wins over Baylor and Maryland. The Spartans will look to avoid being someone else's big win as well as improve their own plight by moving up from that 8/9 game. Prediction: Michigan State 71, Illinois 60.

Creighton (11-13, 2-9) at St. John's (13-8, 3-6) 12PM, New York, NY

This one is all about the Johnnies. They are squarely on the bubble, just hanging on in my latest bracketology. They can ill afford any more bad losses, so with all due respect to Creighton, who beat St. John's in Omaha and is coming off a win at Xavier, this is a must-win. Prediction: St. John's 74, Creighton 64.

Temple (16-7, 7-3) at Memphis (14-8, 6-3) 1PM, Memphis, TN, ESPNN

The Owls are a complicated case. They have a decent RPI, but only one real good win (Kansas by 25) and multiple bad losses, a couple to good teams. I have them on the outside looking in. They can't afford another bad loss and losing this one would be that. Memphis is off the radar. Prediction: Temple 68, Memphis 66.

Purdue (15-8, 7-3) at Minnesota (13-9, 3-7) 3PM, Minneapolis, MN, BTN

The Boilermakers have quietly put themselves seriously in the discussion, after four straight wins, including victories over Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State. Minnesota has been a disappointment this year, but is very capable of playing spoiler. Prediction: Minnesota 77, Purdue 72. 

#23 Texas (14-8, 3-6) at Kansas State (12-11, 5-5) 4PM, Manhattan, KS, ESPN

Texas is falling and falling fast and is in desperate need of a win to avoid falling to double-digit seed status. Kansas State had been making a strong push towards a tourney bid before losing three straight and four of five. Prediction: Texas 72, Kansas State 71.

Alabama (13-8, 4-5) at LSU (16-6, 5-4) 6PM, Baton Rouge, LA, ESPN2

LSU looked to be in good shape until they lost back-to-back games at Mississippi State and to Auburn. Now, they are hanging on by a thread. Bama would love to take their spot, which is conceivable if they can get a couple of solid road wins such as this one. Prediction: Alabama 63, LSU 61.

Harvard (12-5, 4-1) at Yale (14-6, 5-0) 7PM, New Haven, CT

Thanks to the Ivy League not having a postseason tournament, this is a huge game. Yale can take a two game lead on the Crimson with a win. Harvard is coming off an overtime victory over Brown last night, while Yale took care of Dartmouth pretty easily. Prediction: Yale 67, Harvard 66.

#19 SMU (17-5, 9-2) at Tulsa (17-4, 10-0) 8PM, Tulsa, OK, ESPNU

This game is big for both teams, but probably bigger for Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have yet to record a truly good win, despite their 10-0 league record. SMU is coming off a disappointing home loss to Cincinnati. A win for Tulsa likely gives them some breathing room from the "last four in." Prediction: SMU 64, Tulsa 59.

#1 Kentucky (22-0, 9-0) at Florida (12-10, 5-4) 9PM, Gainesville, FL, ESPN

This one is all about Florida, since Kentucky almost certainly remains a 1 seed even with a loss. A Florida win, on the other hand, likely equals a get in the tournament free card. Currently, the Gators are right on the doorstep. Prediction: Kentucky 70, Florida 60. 

Other games of note...

Marquette (10-12, 2-8) at Seton Hall (15-7, 5-5) 12PM, Newark, NJ, CBSS
#18 VCU (19-4, 9-1) at St. Bonaventure (12-8, 4-4) 2PM, St. Bonaventure, NY, NBCS
DePaul (12-12, 6-5) at #24 Butler (17-6, 7-3) 3:30PM, Indianapolis, IN, FS1

Other Top 25 games:

Texas Tech (12-11, 2-8) at #12 Iowa State (16-5, 6-3) 2PM, Ames, IA, ESPNU
#11 North Carolina (17-6, 7-3) at Boston College (9-12, 1-8) 3PM, Chestnut Hill, MA, ESPN3
#15 Oklahoma (15-7, 6-4) at TCU (14-8, 1-8) 3PM, Fort Worth, TX, ESPNN
#6 Arizona (20-2, 8-1) at Arizona State (11-11, 3-6) 4:30PM, Tempe, AZ, FOX
Northwestern (10-12, 1-8) at #5 Wisconsin (20-2, 8-1) 5:30PM, Madison, WI, BTN
Drake (6-16, 4-7) at #14 Northern Iowa (21-2, 10-1) 8PM, Cedar Falls, IA, ESPN3
Missouri State (7-14, 3-8) at #17 Wichita State (19-3, 10-1) 8PM, Wichita, KS, ESPN2
#13 Utah (16-4, 7-2) at Colorado (11-10, 4-5) 10PM, Boulder, CO, Pac12N
#2 Gonzaga (22-1, 11-0) at San Francisco (7-15, 3-9) 11:30PM, San Francisco, CA, ESPN2

Vegas Pick (7-6): 

Arizona -8.5 at Arizona State

New Bracketology - 2/6/15

As of games through Thursday, February 5th.

WARNING: The predicted field/seeding is highly likely to change from day to day or minute to minute.

*Automatic bids in italics

1 SEEDS: Kentucky; Duke; Virginia; Kansas.

2 SEEDS: Wisconsin; Arizona; Gonzaga; Villanova.

3 SEEDS: Iowa State; Louisville; Notre Dame; Oklahoma.

4 SEEDS: North Carolina; Utah; Butler; Baylor.

5 SEEDS: VCU; Providence; Maryland; Wichita State.

6 SEEDS: Georgetown; Northern Iowa; West Virginia; Oklahoma State.

7 SEEDS: Arkansas; Cincinnati; Indiana; San Diego State.

8 SEEDS: Ohio State; SMU; Georgia; Texas.

9 SEEDS: Xavier; Seton Hall; Michigan State; Dayton.

10 SEEDS: Mississippi; Iowa; Stanford; LSU.

11 SEEDS: Colorado State; Texas A&M; St. John's; Old Dominion.

12 SEEDS: UCLA vs. NC State; Miami vs. Tulsa; Buffalo; Wofford.

13 SEEDS: Iona; Yale; Green Bay; Eastern Washington.

14 SEEDS: Long Beach State; Murray State; S.F. Austin; Georgia State.

15 SEEDS: William & Mary; Stony Brook; North Carolina Central; High Point.

16 SEEDS: South Dakota State; Lafayette; Texas Southern vs. New Mexico State; St. Francis (PA) vs. Florida Gulf Coast. 


LAST FOUR BYES: LSU; Colorado State; Texas A&M; St. John's.

LAST FOUR IN: UCLA; Miami; Tulsa; NC State.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Florida; Davidson; BYU; Alabama.

NEXT FOUR OUT: Illinois; Purdue; Temple; George Washington.

NEW ARRIVALS: UCLA; Tulsa; High Point.

DROPPED OUT: Davidson; Florida; Radford. 

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN (Multiple bids): ACC (7); Big 12 (7); Big East (7); Big Ten (6); SEC (6); Pac 12 (4); AAC (3); Atlantic 10 (2); Missouri Valley (2); Mountain West (2)

Note: Automatic bids are determined at this point by the highest RPI in each league.

New Bracketology - 2/4/15

As of games through Tuesday, February 3rd.

WARNING: The predicted field/seeding is highly likely to change from day to day or minute to minute.

*Automatic bids in italics

1 SEEDS: Kentucky; Duke; Virginia; Kansas.

2 SEEDS: Wisconsin; Arizona; Gonzaga; Villanova.

3 SEEDS: Iowa State; Louisville; Notre Dame; Oklahoma.

4 SEEDS: North Carolina; Utah; Butler; Baylor.

5 SEEDS: VCU; Maryland; Wichita State; Georgetown.

6 SEEDS: Northern Iowa; West Virginia; Arkansas; Texas.

7 SEEDS: Indiana; San Diego State; Ohio State; Providence.

8 SEEDS: Xavier; SMU; Oklahoma State; Cincinnati.

9 SEEDS: Georgia; Seton Hall; Michigan State; LSU.

10 SEEDS: Dayton; Stanford; Colorado State; Mississippi.

11 SEEDS: Texas A&M; Iowa; Davidson; Miami vs. Florida.

12 SEEDS: Old Dominion; St. John's vs. NC State; Buffalo; Wofford.

13 SEEDS: Green Bay; Iona; Yale; Long Beach State.

14 SEEDS: Eastern Washington; William & Mary; Murray State; S.F. Austin.

15 SEEDS: Georgia State; Stony Brook; North Carolina Central; Radford.

16 SEEDS: South Dakota State; Lafayette; Texas Southern vs. New Mexico State; Florida Gulf Coast vs. St. Francis (PA). 


LAST FOUR IN: St. John's; Miami; NC State; Florida.

FIRST FOUR OUT: BYU; Tulsa; Alabama; Illinois.

NEXT FOUR OUT: George Washington; Richmond; UCLA; Kansas State.

NEW ARRIVALS: Florida; William & Mary; Radford; Lafayette.

DROPPED OUT: Washington; Northeastern; High Point; American.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN (Multiple bids): ACC (7); Big 12 (7); Big East (7); SEC (7); Big Ten (6); Atlantic 10 (3); Pac 12 (3); AAC (2); Missouri Valley (2); Mountain West (2)

Note: Automatic bids are determined at this point by the highest RPI in each league.

Eye on the Tourney: Today's Games to Watch

A busy Saturday brings us a few marquee match-ups with high NCAA Tournament seed ramifications, as a number of crucial contests will go a long way towards determining whether some teams are lucky enough to be seeded at all. 

Let's take a look.

Xavier (14-7, 5-4) at Seton Hall (14-6, 4-4) 12PM, Newark, NJ, FS1

The cluttered and underrated Big East (2nd rated RPI conference) gets us started with a match-up of two teams currently in the NCAA field, but eager to secure a spot at the expense of the other. Both are coming off of big wins. Xavier finally got a big road win (at Georgetown), while the Hall snapped a three-game losing streak at Marquette. The Pirates have some good news in the form of freshman Isaiah Whitehead's return. Prediction: Seton Hall 66, Xavier 63.

Providence (16-5, 6-2) at St. John's (12-7, 2-5) 12PM, New York, NY, FOX

More Big East action here, as underrated Providence goes into The World's Most Famous Arena and attempts to avenge the sound defeat they suffered at the hands of the Red Storm a couple weeks ago. The Johnnies will need to get this game as well, since they have lost six of their last eight and are seeing their tournament hopes dim with each disappointing loss. The Friars are looking like solid tourney participants and will want to keep up their current momentum. Point guard Kris Dunn has been spectacular of late and is coming off a triple-double performance versus DePaul. Prediction: St. John's 73, Providence 71.

Arkansas (16-4, 5-2) at Florida (11-9, 4-3) 1PM, Gainesville, FL, CBS

On to the SEC where Florida is very down, but not completely out. Something tells me the Gators are primed to make a run at the dance, after their tough 2-point victory at fellow bubble resident Alabama, this week. The Razorbacks are currently looking like the second best in the league and about a 6 seed in the NCAAs, but that's a tenuous position at best. Prediction: Florida 74, Arkansas 69.

#11 North Carolina (17-4, 7-1) at #10 Louisville (17-3, 5-2) 4PM, Louisville, KY, ESPN

Enter the marquee match-ups and the top-heavy ACC. Despite the rankings and even the records, UNC has the far better resume between the two teams. Louisville has yet to beat an elite opponent, including their one-point loss in Chapel Hill earlier this month. If the Cardinals are going to live up to their projections, it will likely have to start today against the talented, but injury plagued Tar Heels. Prediction: Louisville 75, North Carolina 70.

#14 Wichita State (18-2, 9-0) at #16 Northern Iowa (19-2, 8-1) 4PM, Cedar Falls, IA, ESPN2

It's not often that the Missouri Valley presents a must-see match-up in late January, but that's the case today. Many wondered whether anyone in the MVC would step up and challenge Wichita State's supremacy and the Panthers have come out of nowhere to do just that this season. UNI, like the Shockers, look like NCAA Tournaments locks. Wichita State will look to make a statement versus the league up-start, while Northern Iowa will be eager to protect their home court. Prediction: Wichita State 68, Northern Iowa 65.

#18 Texas (14-6, 3-4) at #23 Baylor (14-5, 3-4) 6PM, Waco, TX, ESPN2

You can't have a Saturday Games to Watch this year without an appearance from the Big 12. Texas, though very much on the radar and tournament bound, has been a bit disappointing despite their abundance of talent. Good leagues can do that to teams and Baylor knows all about disappointment. The Bears, too, look like a sure fire tourney team, but their eventual seed is very much uncertain. Both teams want this game badly. Prediction: Texas 72, Baylor 69.

#4 Duke (17-3, 4-3) at #2 Virginia (19-0, 7-0) 7PM, Charlottesville, VA, ESPN

Back to the ACC for the unquestioned game of the day. This is big boy stuff here, with #1 seeds in the mix. Virginia has been as impressive as any team in the country this year, and yes, that includes that team in Lexington. It's offense versus defense, but also a lot of youth versus a lot of experience. Charlottesville will be rocking. Prediction: Virginia 67, Duke 61.

#20 Oklahoma (13-7, 4-4) at Oklahoma State (13-6, 4-4) 8PM, Stillwater, OK, ESPN2

We finish with another Big 12 match-up of virtual tourney locks. Add to that the in-state component and identical league records and you have what should be a knock-down, drag-out affair. Oklahoma has the higher ceiling of the two, but the Cowboys are home where they rarely lose. The Sooners, like Texas, have been slightly disappointing of late, but they are coming off a 45-point victory at Texas Tech. Prediction: Oklahoma 70, Oklahoma State 66.

Other games of note...

#5 Wisconsin (18-2, 6-1) at Iowa (13-7, 4-3) 12PM, Iowa City, IA, ESPN

Kansas State (12-9, 5-3) at #9 Kansas (17-3, 6-1) 2PM, Lawrence, KS, ESPN

George Washington (16-5, 6-2) at Rhode Island (13-5, 6-2) 4PM, Kingston, RI

Georgia (14-5, 5-2) at South Carolina (9-9, 1-6) 4PM, Columbia, SC, ESPNU

Other Top 25 games:

#8 Notre Dame (20-2, 8-1) at Pittsburgh (12-8, 3-5) 12PM, Pittsburgh, PA, ESPN3

Texas Tech (11-10, 1-7) at #21 West Virginia (17-3, 5-2) 12PM, Morgantown, WV, ESPNU

#19 Georgetown (14-6, 6-3) at Creighton (10-12, 1-8) 2PM, Omaha, NE, CBSS

#7 Villanova (18-2, 5-2) at DePaul (11-11, 5-4) 2PM, Rosemont, IL, FS1

TCU (14-6, 1-6) at #15 Iowa State (15-4, 5-2) 2PM, Ames, IA, ESPNU

#24 Butler (15-6, 5-3) at Marquette (10-10, 2-6) 2PM, Milwaukee, WI

Richmond (11-9, 4-3) at #13 VCU (18-3, 8-0) 2PM, Richmond, VA, ESPN2

Fresno State (8-11, 5-3) at #25 Colorado State (17-3, 5-3) 6PM, Fort Collins, CO, CBSS

Alabama (12-7, 3-4) at #1 Kentucky (20-0, 7-0) 7PM, Lexington, KY, SECN

UCF (8-11, 2-7) at #22 SMU (16-4, 8-1) 8PM, Dallas, TX, ESPNU

Memphis (13-7, 6-3) at #3 Gonzaga (20-1, 10-0) 10PM, Spokane, WA, ESPN2

Vegas pick (6-6): 

Georgetown -2.5 at Creighton