Top 25

1. Duke (6-0) LW: 3
2. Louisville (6-0) LW: 1
3. Gonzaga (6-0) LW: 2
4. Michigan State (3-1) LW: 4
5. Ohio State (5-0) LW: 5
6. Virginia (6-0) LW: 7
7. Kentucky (5-1) LW: 6
8. Arizona (6-0) LW: 8
9. Kansas (3-1) LW: 9
10. North Carolina (4-0) LW: 10
11. Oregon (5-0) LW: 14
12. Tennessee (4-0) LW: 11
13: Maryland (5-0) LW: 12
14: Seton Hall (4-1) LW: 13
15: Baylor (5-1) LW: 20
16: Auburn (5-0) LW: 15
17. Texas Tech (5-0) LW: 16
18. Washington (5-1) LW: 18
19. Florida (5-2) LW: NR
20. West Virginia (4-0) LW: 19
21. Villanova (4-2) LW: 22
22. Xavier (6-1) LW: 21
23. Michigan (4-0) LW: 25
24. Butler (5-0) LW: 23
25. Texas (5-1) LW: 17

In the mix: Colorado; Florida State; Indiana; Memphis; Oklahoma; Penn State; Purdue; Utah State; VCU.

New Bracketology - 2/2/16

It’s February, which means it is officially time to start projecting the NCAA Tournament field.

Here's a look at my first in-season Bracketology for 2015-16.

As of games through Monday, February 1.

WARNING: The predicted field/seeding is highly likely to change from day to day or minute to minute.

*Automatic bids in italics

1 SEEDS: Oklahoma; Iowa; North Carolina; Villanova.

2 SEEDS: Xavier; Virginia; Iowa State; Kansas.

3 SEEDS: Michigan State; Oregon; Texas A&M; Texas.

4 SEEDS: West Virginia; Maryland; Louisville; Miami.

5 SEEDS: Purdue; Kentucky; Providence; Utah.

6 SEEDS: USC; Duke; Arizona; Dayton.

7 SEEDS: Baylor; Florida; Michigan, Indiana.

8 SEEDS: Notre Dame; Wichita State; Colorado; California.

9 SEEDS: St. Mary’s; VCU; Pittsburgh; Syracuse.

10 SEEDS: Florida State; South Carolina; Seton Hall; UConn.

11 SEEDS: Valparaiso; St. Joe’s; Washington; Butler vs. Cincinnati.

12 SEEDS: Monmouth; Clemson vs. Texas Tech; San Diego State; Ark. Little Rock.

13 SEEDS: Chattanooga; William & Mary; South Dakota State; Stony Brook.

14 SEEDS: Princeton; Akron; UC Irvine; Middle Tenn. State.

15 SEEDS: Belmont; Grand Canyon; North Florida; Montana.

16 SEEDS: S. F. Austin; NC Asheville; Navy vs. Wagner; Southern vs. Hampton.

LAST FOUR IN: Butler; Clemson; Texas Tech; Cincinnati.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt; Kansas State; UCLA; Gonzaga.

NEXT FOUR OUT: Oregon State; Georgia Tech; Georgetown; George Washington.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: ACC (10); Big 12 (7); Pac 12 (7); Big Ten (6); Big East (5); SEC (4); Atlantic 10 (3); AAC (2).

Note: Automatic bids are determined at this point by the highest RPI in each league.

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - 3/22/15

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Record: 17-26-1

Sunday, 3/22/15. Round of 32:

(2) Virginia -4.5 vs (7) Michigan State, 12:10PM, Charlotte, NC, CBS

The Spartans have been playing well for the last couple weeks, having only lost to Wisconsin in overtime. The Cavs have been playing well all year and the second best defense in the country should be able to slow Michigan State down. Look for UVA to avenge last year's Sweet 16 loss to the Spartans. 

(8) San Diego State +9 vs (1) Duke, 2:40PM, Charlotte, NC, CBS

The totally defensive dependent Aztecs putt up a whopping 76 points against St. John's on Friday. Not that you should expect a repeat, but Duke's defense is average at best. I would expect SDSU to give Duke's offense some trouble, maybe not to the tune of a victory, but a closer than expected game.

(2) Kansas -1.5 vs (7) Wichita State, 5:15PM, Omaha, NE, CBS

You know the story, Wichita State finally gets its shot at big bad Kansas. But, there are two sides to every story; Kansas gets its shot, too. The Jayhawks have been undervalued this year because they haven't been dominant, but they've been very good. The Shockers are pretty good in their own right, but look for Bill Self and company to make a statement. 

(3) Oklahoma -4 vs (11) Dayton, 6:10PM, Columbus, OH, TNT

There is no doubt who we all think the better team is. But, there's definitely doubt as to who will win this game. That's a credit to coach Archie Miller and his gritty Flyers. This should be a defensive struggle, since the strength of both teams is on that side of the floor. However, Oklahoma has more offensive weapons, so I'll take the Sooners and the points. 

(7) Iowa +6.5 vs (2) Gonzaga, 7:10PM, Seattle, WA, TBS

Besides a hiccup or maybe a regurgitation versus Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament, Iowa has been great over the last month. The Zags have only had two hiccups all season. Gonzaga is one of the better offensive teams in the country, but Iowa - on a good day - is capable of keeping up. Here's to hoping the Hawkeyes keep up. I'll take the points.

(1) Wisconsin -12 vs (8) Oregon, 7:45PM, Omaha, NE, TRU

Oregon (and coach Dana Altman) has been a nice story. But, did you see what happened when the Ducks went up against Arizona in the Pac 12 Championship? I see something similar today, much like Ohio State's fate against both Wisconsin and Arizona.

(4) Maryland pk vs (5) West Virginia, 8:40PM, Columbus, OH, TNT

This is definitely a pretty even match-up, as the line suggests. I'll take the Terps, based on Trimble and Wells as well as Maryland's better overall balance on both sides of the ball. 

(5) Northern Iowa -2 vs (4) Louisville, 9:40PM, Seattle, WA, TBS

Much like Butler/Notre Dame to end last night, this one should be another war of a defensive battle that will have all your favorite fake basketball media tweeting their dislike for the college game. I'll take UNI because I have some semblance of confidence that they will be able to make a couple shots.

Twitter: @Blacketologist 

Dance Line$ - Picking the Tournament - 3/20/15

This year, I will be picking every game of the Tournament against the spread.

For the record, I am doing this just for fun - for the love of the game!

Off the record, who knows, so wish me luck. Thanks!

Record: 8-12

Friday, 3/20/15. First Round:

(2) Kansas -9.5 vs (15) New Mexico State, 12:15PM, Omaha, NE, CBS

The Big 12 had it pretty rough yesterday. Kansas is different, though. After a poor tournament last year, expect the Jayhawks to be focused today.

(10) Georgia +7 vs (7) Michigan State, 12:40PM, Charlotte, NC, TRU

Funny that Michigan State, known for defense, has actually been a better offensive team than defensive. Georgia is the more gritty defensive team this year, so the score should be low and close. 

(12) Wyoming +6 vs (5) Northern Iowa, 1:40PM, Seattle, WA, TBS

This will be another low scoring game, as both teams take their time on offense, to say the least. I'm high on UNI, but Wyoming is just as experienced and has been playing well of late. Look for another close one.

(12) Buffalo +4.5 vs (5) West Virginia, 2:10PM, Columbus, OH, TNT

I've been calling for this upset since the bracket came out, so I'm not stopping here. The Bulls are underrated and have played well versus tougher teams than West Virginia. I've never truly been sold on the Mountaineers this season.

(10) Indiana +6 vs (7) Wichita State, 2:45PM, Omaha, NE, CBS

This is one of the more intriguing match-ups of the first round. Indiana is reliant on the 3-point shot, but their threes will likely be contested today. Wichita State is solid on both ends of the floor, but I see this coming down to a play or two at the end.

(15) Belmont +17 vs (2) Virginia, 3:10PM, Charlotte, NC, TRU

On paper, the Bruins are a scary 15 seed, because of their history and their shooting prowess. Belmont shoots and hits a lot of threes, so a hot performance could keep them in this game. The flip side is, UVA is the best defensive team in the country and good enough offensively to exploit Belmont's defensive weaknesses.

(4) Louisville -8 vs (13) UC Irvine, 4:10PM, Seattle, WA, TBS

Louisville has struggled to live up to expectations this year, primarily because they can't shoot. Their defense has never been a problem. I don't see the Anteaters putting many points on the board.

(13) Valparaiso +5.5 vs (4) Maryland, 4:40PM, Columbus, OH, TNT

This is a close game/upset waiting to happen, unless Dez Wells and Melo Trimble can find a way to take over the game.

(9) Oklahoma State +3 vs (8) Oregon, 6:50PM, Omaha, NE, TBS

The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team and should benefit from playing a team outside of the Big 12 for the first time in a long time. Plus, the Big 12 needs some good news today.

(1) Duke -22.5 vs (16) Robert Morris, 7:10PM, Charlotte, NC, CBS

I have been impressed with Bobby Mo in their last three games, particularly with their leading scorer, Lucky Jones. But, when Duke puts its mind to it, they can be lethal. I see one of those performances tonight.

(10) Davidson +2 vs (7) Iowa, 7:20PM, Seattle, WA, TNT

This will be another good one. Davidson is one of the better offensive teams in the country, as well as fun to watch. Iowa is solid on both sides of the ball, but has been wildly inconsistent this year. Look for the Wildcats to drain a lot of threes to make up for the size differential.

(3) Oklahoma -13.5 vs (14) Albany, 7:27PM, Columbus, OH, TRU

The Sooners are one of my sleeper picks to get to the Final Four. I don't see Albany being too big of a roadblock.

(1) Wisconsin -20.5 vs (16) Coastal Carolina, 9:20PM, Omaha, NE, TBS

The Badgers have been quite rude to lesser competition all season. The Chanticleers are in for a long night.

(9) St. John's +4 vs (8) San Diego State, 9:40PM, Charlotte, NC, CBS

This will be a grind. SDSU is one of the best defensive teams in the country, while the Johnnies aren't too shabby either. St. John's will miss big man Chris Obekpa, but only on defense. Their guards should at least keep them in the game.

(2) Gonzaga -18 vs (15) North Dakota State, 9:50PM, Seattle, WA, TNT

Look for the Zags to make a statement to their NCAA Tournament non-believers.

(6) Providence -3 vs (11) Dayton, 9:57PM, Columbus, OH, TRU

Dayton is one of those teams that you must finish off and kill because they won't kill themselves. So, it won't be easy for the Friars, but Dunn, Henton & company have shown to be hungry late in the season. Look for Providence to survive a knock-down, drag-out affair.


Twitter: @Blacketologist 

Ranking The Regions - A Look At Each Corner Of The NCAA Tournament Bracket

Every year at this time there is chatter about who the committee stiffed, who was given the easy road (usually Duke), and what region of the bracket was unfairly overloaded.

I plan to answer all those questions for you this year, as I rank the regions in the 2015 NCAA Tournament bracket from strongest to weakest.

#1: EAST

There is no question that fans and even some “experts” undervalue Villanova.

But, the Wildcats are the second strongest 1 seed in the dance. They are playing better than anyone not named Kentucky and have won 15 straight Big East games (2^nd rated conference in the country) by an average of 17 points.

The 2 seed is a team many believed should have been a 1, in 29-3 Virginia.

Oklahoma is a team fully capable of making a deep run as a 3 seed, coming out of America’s best conference this season.

4 seed Louisville and their coach Rick Pitino are a team that I can guarantee no one wants to run into this time of year. Yes, they have struggled a bit, before and after the loss of Chris Jones, but if any coach can gather the troops and make a run, it’s Pitino.

That’s a tough 4 seed frontline, but it doesn’t stop there. Northern Iowa, Providence, and Michigan State are all teams that can play with anyone in the country and it should surprise no one if they go on a run.

#2: MIDWEST

Well, the best team in the country is here, so there’s that.

Kentucky of course is gunning to make history as the first undefeated team since the 1976 Indiana squad. It won’t be as easy as many think, particularly in this sneaky tough region.

Kansas, the 2 seed in this region, has been overlooked all season.

But, all they do is win.

Remember, the Jayhawks won the Big 12 (the #1 rated conference) again this season and actually come into the tournament with the most top 25 wins, at 9. There is no team more tested.

There is also no team that will have more incentive to beat Kentucky, considering the Wildcats drilled them by 32 for all the world to see, back in November.

Notre Dame is capable of beating anyone, with their high-powered offense, led by one of the best players in the country, Jerian Grant.

The 4 seed, Maryland, is a team many believed should have been a 3 seed, based on the Terps’ 27-6 record, high RPI, and the combination of Dez Wells and Melo Trimble.

This region also has the scariest collection of tough/gritty teams, with West Virginia, Butler, Wichita State, and Cincinnati inhabiting seeds 5-8.

#3: WEST

It’s hard to argue with the top two seeds in this region.

Wisconsin and Arizona are almost mirror images of each other. Both are super talented, experienced teams that dominated their respective weaker-than-usual conferences. But, both have shown unpredictable weakness here and there.

Baylor is an interesting 3 seed. Formidable, yes, but they feel more like a sleeper than a team to be counted on. The Bears have some big-time wins, but all within their conference.

North Carolina is similar to Baylor: dangerous, but hard to count on.

Arkansas, Xavier and VCU all seem capable of winning a game or two, max.

#4: SOUTH

I’ll start with the obligatory, I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but…

On paper, it looks like the Committee was pretty, pretty kind to Duke (Larry David voice). The Blue Devils have been great, but a tiny bit fragile.

They are joined in the South by perhaps the weakest 2 seed – at least, resumé wise – in Gonzaga. The Zags have the fewest number of top 50 and top 25 wins of the 2 seeds.

Iowa State is a strong 3 seed that is capable of reaching the Final Four. But, Georgetown and Utah, have been up and down, more recently down.

6 seed SMU is a solid team with a nice story and Larry brown is a great coach. However, the Mustangs’ best wins this season came against AAC foes Temple and Tulsa; neither is in the field.

 This article first appeared at College Hoops Daily, The College Basketball Blog.

Eye On The Tourney: Last Night's Recap - Tonight's Game To Watch

Last Night's Recap:

Big Wins:

Notre Dame vs. Duke, 77-73 - Notre Dame had been having a spectacular season even prior to last night's victory, but they surely helped their cause significantly. The Irish now look like a solid 2/3 seed.

Seton Hall at Marquette, 80-70 - You might be saying to yourself: how is beating a rebuilding Marquette program a big win? Well, previously ranked Seton Hall had lost three straight and were starting to trend downward, as far as their NCAA Tournament prospects were concerned. The Pirates were able to stem the tide a bit last night and are still in the current tourney field.

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech, 81-36 - Here's another result that has little to do with the opponent. The Sooners had lost four of their last six and many had started to question their ability to contend for the Big 12 title and a high NCAA Tournament seed. A 45-point win and handing Tubby Smith his worst loss ever may have put OU back on track.

Stanford at Washington, 84-74 - The Cardinal got a big road win versus another Pac 12 team with tournament aspirations. Johnny Dawkins's team took a step toward solidifying a spot in the dance.

Bad Losses:

Miami vs. Georgia Tech, 70-50 - Just when it looked like Miami was heading in the right direction after a rough stretch in December, the Hurricanes seemingly reverted back to their inconsistent selves. Losing by 20 at home to the previously winless in the ACC Yellow Jackets, pushes Miami into double-digit seed territory.

NC State vs. Clemson, 68-57 - If NC State wasn't on the bubble going into last night, they surely are now. A home loss to struggling Clemson could come back to haunt the Wolfpack in March.

Indiana at Purdue, 83-67 - While the Hoosier loss at Purdue was far from shocking, it is their second straight road semi blowout loss. Indiana is still solidly in the field, but they will need a few more big wins to feel completely safe.

St. John's at Creighton, 77-74 - The Johnnies' place in the tournament was tenuous at best entering last night and losing to the 10-12 Bluejays - though tough at home - was far from a good look. The Red Storm have now lost six of their last eight and need an exceptional finish to the season in order to avoid disaster for Steve Lavin & co. 

Washington - The Huskies were the last team in the field in my latest projections. If their 10-point home loss to Stanford is indicative of how they will look without the services of Center, Robert Upshaw, they can likely kiss the tournament goodbye.

Tonight's Game To Watch:

#17 Maryland (18-3, 6-2) at Ohio State (16-5, 5-3) 7PM, Columbus, OH, ESPN

Both of these squads look to be tourney bound, with the Terps currently looking like a 4 seed, while the Buckeyes are in the 8/9 seed range. However, OSU would love to move up and they look capable lately, after recording their best win of the season over Indiana on Sunday. Maryland has been the undisputed second best team in the Big Ten so far and a win at Ohio State would further solidify that. Prediction: Ohio State 72, Maryland 68.

Other games of note...

Connecticut (11-7, 4-2) at Cincinnati (14-5, 5-2) 8PM, Cincinnati, OH, ESPN2

Other Top 25 games:

Portland (10-9, 3-6) at #3 Gonzaga (19-1, 9-0) 9PM, Spokane, WA, ROOT
#1 Kentucky (19-0, 6-0) at Missouri (6-12, 1-5) 9PM, Columbia, MO, ESPN
#12 Utah (15-3, 6-1) at UCLA (11-9, 3-4) 10PM, Los Angeles, CA, ESPN2

Vegas Pick (6-5): 

Utah -6 at UCLA

Today's Games To Watch

The Big Ten kicks off today with four afternoon games. The league has been disappointing in the non conference, having dropped to 5th in conference RPI rankings. But, the grind of league play will allow us to separate the B1G's true contenders and pretenders.

Iowa (9-4) at #17 Ohio State (11-2) 1PM, Columbus, OH, ESPN2

The Hawkeyes travel to Columbus to set off their Big Ten season. Iowa has struggled against solid competition, as they are 1-4 versus top 30 teams. Ohio State has looked better overall, but they are 0-2 against the two NCAA Tournament caliber teams they have played so far, albeit versus UNC and Louisville. So, like the Big Ten in general, both of these teams have plenty to prove entering conference play. Prediction: Ohio State 72, Iowa 67

#15 Maryland (12-1) at Michigan State (9-4) 5PM, East Lansing, MI, ESPN2

Maryland has probably been the surprise team in the Big Ten so far. Coach Mark Turgeon had come under fire from many of the Terrapins faithful, but he seems to have answered his critics after a 12-1 start that is tied for the best record in the league. There is also more good news in Terpland, as Dez Wells is back in the line-up after being out with a wrist injury. The Spartans have struggled, for the most part, this season. Their best win to date was versus Marquette and they were beaten at home by Texas Southern ten days ago. This is a huge opportunity for the Spartans to get their first true quality win. Prediction: Michigan State 68, Maryland 67.

Other games of note...

Illinois (10-3) at Michigan (6-5) 3PM, Ann Arbor, MI, ESPN2
Cincinnati (8-3) at NC State (10-3) 4PM, Raleigh, NC, ESPNU
Florida (7-4) at Florida State (7-5) 7PM, Tallahassee, FL, ESPN2
Mississippi (8-3) at Dayton (9-2) 8PM, Dayton, OH, CBSS

Other Top 25 games...

Virginia Tech (8-4) at #22 West Virginia (11-1) 2PM, Morgantown, WV, ESPNU
Long Beach State (4-9) at #4 Louisville (11-1) 4PM, Louisville, KY, ESPN3
Davidson (8-1) at #3 Virginia (11-0) 6PM, Charlottesville, VA, ESPNU
William & Mary (4-4) at #12 North Carolina (9-3) 7PM, Chapel Hill, NC, ESPN3
Hartford (6-5) at #14 Notre Dame (12-1) 7:30PM, South Bend, IN, ESPN3
Norfolk State (6-5) at #25 Baylor (10-1) 8PM, Waco, TX
Kent State (7-3) at #16 Kansas (9-2) 8PM, Lawrence, KS, ESPN3
Carroll at #11 Utah (9-2) 9:30PM, Salt Lake City, UT, P12N