NBA Bubble Wrap

Thoughts and observations from yesterday’s playoff games…

 

 

The playoffs kicked off in the NBA bubble yesterday and as 17-year NBA referee Zach Zarba predicted on the Bill Rhoden On Sports podcast last week, playoff intensity was not lacking.

 

“These eight seeding games we’ve had have been akin to playoff games, in my mind” Zarba said last week. “They’re not playoff games, technically, but they’ve had the player intensity of playoff games.” When I asked Zarba if he thought the intensity could go to an even higher level come playoff time, he responded “Oh, we’re just getting started. Oh, yes.”

 

Zarba’s words proved prophetic. Yesterday’s Game 1s had at least normal playoff intensity and they again had the feel of NCAA Tournament games, with the uniform neutral courts and the sports fans’ dream: games starting at 1:30PM eastern time and ending just before midnight.

 

The first game of an NBA playoff series is usually the tone setter, maybe even more so now based on the condensed end of the regular season. Here are some thoughts from yesterday:

 

Jazz/Nuggets

 

Coming into the series, it seemed obvious that the current iteration of the Jazz was strikingly similar to their playoff teams the last couple years. Without Bojan Bogdanovic (wrist) and Mike Conley (paternity leave) it would again depend on Donovan Mitchell to do everything and more on the offensive end.

 

Mitchell did that yesterday, dropping 57 points to go with 9 rebounds and 7 assists, but even that was not enough. Denver is just too talented and deep to let one man beat them.

 

Jamal Murray put on a show of his own, with 36 points, 9 assists and 5 rebounds.

 

He and Mitchell are similar in that many fans and prognosticators are hesitant to put them in the up-and-coming superstar category, but my bet is these two will continue to force their way into that category.

 

Denver’s Michael Porter Jr., struggled a bit in his first playoff game. He scored 13 points on 5/13 shooting, but did grab 8 rebounds in 31 minutes. Welcome to the playoffs, young man.

 

Net/Raptors

 

There’s really not much to say about this one. The Nets are overmatched. They have a team resembling a G-League squad, thanks to many of their best players missing from the bubble. The Nets play hard and could sneak up on a team less prepared or less scrappy, but Toronto is not that team. The Raptors play just as hard, pay as much attention to detail and just happen to have much better players at the moment.

 

Fred VanVleet had a monster game with 30 points and 11 assists.

 

Caris LeVert was still impressive, however. He finished with 15 points, 15 assists and 7 rebounds. It’s all about health for LeVert.

 

Philly/Boston

 

The 76ers did show last night that this will not be an easy series for Boston just because Ben Simmons is out. Philadelphia is still a physical defensive team with heart. They will force Boston to beat them.

 

But, Boston just has too much fire power, led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, two more budding superstars. In order for Philly to have a real shot at this series, Joel Embiid will need to match the scoring of Brown and Tatum combined and he was unable to do that in Game 1.

 

Embiid did post 26 and 16, but if Donovan Mitchell can drop 57, Embiid has to get you at least 40.

 

Gordon Hayward’s ankle injury is scary, however. Boston will need him in order to do anything serious, such as make a run to the NBA Finals.

 

Dallas/LA Clippers

 

This game was marred by the controversial ejection of Kristaps Porzingis early in the third quarter. KP was playing well and the Mavericks were up five at the time, but I’m not sure the Clippers wouldn’t have won the game anyway.

 

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George showed up as expected, scoring 29 and 27, respectively. Marcus Morris Sr. was the third scorer, hitting some big shots on his way to 19 points.

 

Montrezl Harrell got his feet wet in his first action in the bubble. He logged 15 minutes and had 6 points and 2 rebounds. Expect Harrell to become more and more comfortable in the next few games and eventually become the factor he was pre pandemic.

 

The Clippers are deep, but their backup guard situation looks shaky, as both Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet looked terrible last night.

 

Luka Doncic was unstoppable as usual last night (42, 9 & 7), but he is prone to mistakes. The Clippers forced him into 11 turnovers.

 

Getting back to the Porzingis ejection, the referees may be more prone to overreaction in the bubble because of the quiet gym that allows them to hear everything at an amplified level. You may see more technical fouls because the referees hear more than they would if there were 20,000 fans drowning everything else out.

 

“You can now hear so many more things that the crowd might normally drown out,” Zarba said. “You know, we have to learn not to be so sensitive, because a lot of it is passion and wanting to win.”

Sports Are Not Essential And Athletes Are Not Essential Employees

Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States, we have been introduced to the concept of the essential worker. The essential worker is one who must be on the frontline of this battle versus the pandemic in order to provide necessities to others or themselves.

Some examples come to mind: emergency room doctors and staff, public transportation workers, grocery store employees, restaurants and delivery workers, Amazon warehouse workers, and of course NBA, NFL, MLB and college football players.

Wait, what?

Yes, that’s right, if you listen closely to some fans, league personnel, players and coaches, and even government officials, professional and college sports and the athletes therein are being described in ways previously reserved for the traditional class of essential employees.

The most popular argument for this designation is that entertainment is essential to the public, particularly during a pandemic that has forced most of our smart and responsible citizens to refrain from activities that would provide entertainment in normal times.

Some have gone even further, claiming that sports are actually essential to the well-being of sports fans and even casual fans because entertainment would increase the public’s morale and would keep the public safe by giving us a reason to stay inside in order to watch sports on television.

“Work out the economics, if you can,” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said referring to professional sports teams in New York.

“We want you up,” Cuomo said in May. “We want people to be able to watch sports. To the extent people are still staying home, it gives people something to do. It’s a return to normalcy. So, we are working and encouraging all sports teams to start their training camps as soon as possible and we’ll work with them to make sure that can happen.”

While the sentiment may make some sense, it unfairly puts substantial pressure on the athletes. What other multi-millionaires do you know that are being pressured to put themselves in harm’s way for the benefit of others? Every other multi-millionaire I can think of can work in the comfort of their own home or vacation home, insulated from any possible exposure to Covid-19.

At least one professional athlete has caught on.

“Football is a nonessential business and so we don’t need to do it,” New Orleans Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins said on Thursday. “So, the risk has to be really eliminated before we, before I, would feel comfortable with going back.”

Jenkins will undoubtedly catch heat from a segment of society that believes he is essential for their entertainment and therefore expendable.

On the other hand, professional athletes are not being paid to sit out, so playing may be essential to some in order to feed their families, which is another category of essential worker, akin maybe to the Amazon warehouse worker.

That is a different issue.

Players should be encouraged to make up their own minds when it comes to participation and should not allow themselves to be pressured into believing that self-sacrifice on the field or court of play, for other people’s entertainment, is akin to the emergency room physician.

Take That, Take That: A Look at Ben Simmons. He's No Magic, But Don't Count Him Out Yet

Ben Simmons has been receiving a lot of heat lately - maybe rightfully so - I’m not sure – so I decided to take a look at him compared to a couple of Hall of Famers who notoriously couldn’t shoot at his age either.

I looked at Simmons’s stats this year at age 22, compared to Jason Kidd at the same age and Magic Johnson at 22, as well. Kidd, like Simmons was in his second year in the league. Magic was in his third year at age 22, after only playing in 37 games the season prior.

The stat comparison is interesting and I think suggests we should, of course, be more patient with Simmons, whose statistics are at least comparable to the two Hall of Famers. But, criticism of Simmons’s unwillingness to shoot is on point, as it has rendered him absolutely no threat from the perimeter and become a mental block that has almost certainly affected other parts of his game.

Simmons actually shot a better % from 2 (57%) than Magic (55%) and way better than Kidd (40%). Kidd, known as a terrible shooter in 1995-96, actually shot a respectable 34% from 3 and took a surprising 4.9 3s per game. Magic took 0.4 3s per game in 1981-82 and made 21% of his attempts. Simmons took 0.1 3s per game this year at a 0% clip. At this stage of their careers, Kidd was a threat from 3, Magic was a threat to take one every couple games, and Simmons is not a threat at all.

Magic was also just better than Simmons or Kidd. He was Magic. Johnson averaged 18.6ppg, 9.6rpg and 9.5apg, compared to Simmons’s 16.9, 8.8, and 7.7. Kidd averaged 16.6, 6.8, and 9.7.

In terms of efficiency, Magic led the way with a 22.9 PER, but Simmons was not far off at 20.0, ahead of Kidd’s 17.8.

Many have argued that Simmons’s weaknesses are pronounced most in the playoffs, to the point where he is ineffective. That seems to bear out, at least compared to Magic. In 10 playoff games this year, Simmons’s production has dipped to 13.3ppg, 6.9rpg, and 6.1apg, his 2-point shooting has been good at 60%, but he has not attempted a 3. Magic attempted 0.3 3s per game in 14 playoff games in 1982, but did not make any. However, his overall production remained strong, averaging 17.4ppg, 11.3rpg and 9.3apg. Kidd did not make the playoffs in 1996.

So, it’s too early to give up on Simmons as an elite, Hall of Fame type of player. He needs to at least start taking some 3s in order to be a threat and develop confidence so that eventually some of them will go in. That would put less pressure on the rest of his game, particularly in the playoffs. But, it is also clear he is no Magic Johnson.

Put Some 'Respek' On Trae Young's Name

Trae Young comes into tonight’s game versus the Brooklyn Nets averaging 15.5 points per game (3^rd among rookies) and 7.3 assists per game (1^st among rookies and 9^th in the NBA). Those are solid NBA numbers for anyone and arguably terrific for a rookie, but for Young, many look for the negatives.

There are some negatives. Young is shooting 39% from the field and 29% from beyond the three-point line. He is also averaging four turnovers per game, good for 4^th worst in the league.

He is a rookie.

We used to be able to say a kid’s going to take his lumps in his rookie season and look past some of the early mistakes. For some players we still can.

Luka Doncic, widely considered the best player so far from the 2018 draft, is averaging 19.6 points, 4.9 assists, and 6.7 rebounds. Those are also impressive numbers for a rookie. Doncic is shooting just 43% from the field and is averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. However, you rarely hear anyone doing anything but gush over Doncic, perhaps rightfully so. Young, like other star rookies in his class – notably, Deandre Ayton - has been disproportionally overshadowed by Doncic and the attention he does receive from the media and fans alike, is often perplexingly negative.

Young is aware of this.

“Yeah, I don’t know,” Young said before his game against the Nets last month, when I asked him why he seemed to have so many “haters.” “I didn’t know me playing basketball would cause so many people not to like me.”

“I definitely recognize it,” he continued. “Something that my Dad has always told me is that there’s more people out there that love you than don’t. So, the more people that don’t like me, that just shows there’s even more people in the world that do. So, I don’t even trip, I don’t let it affect me or think about it too much.”

It is hard to pinpoint a reason for the skepticism about Young’s game, but a few reasons that you hear from the anti-Trae Young crowd include the hype he received at the college level and the lofty comparisons that some in the media and basketball circles made between him and Stephen Curry.

Although Young started his college career in spectacular fashion and tailed off statistically in the second half of his first and only season at Oklahoma, he still finished the season as the NCAA leader in points (27.4) and assists (8.7) per game, a feat that had never been accomplished by anyone, much less by a freshman. In an age where hype is handed out like candy on Halloween, Young’s praise and acclaim seemed justified.

As for the Stephen Curry comparisons, it is never fair to compare a college player or rookie NBA player to a two-time league MVP, three-time NBA champion, and a player many consider to be the best shooter of all time. Granted, Young may have been a victim of believing his own hype by falling in love with ridiculously deep 3-point attempts, but, hey, the kid is young and shot selection is a much easier fix than shot mechanics or confidence.

His struggles with his outside shot are what most of Young’s detractors point to and is particularly bothersome to those flabbergasted by the Curry comparisons. 39% from the field and 29% from three-point range is not good, but the problem stems mostly from poor shot selection rather than any mechanical issue with his shot. If you take away some of his unnecessary 30-foot attempts, it’s likely his 3-point percentage would be more respectable.

Moreover, Young is a 20-year-old obviously still learning the game. To put up 16 points and 7 assists on a regular basis in the NBA, on a team with maybe the least talent in the league is truly an accomplishment.

“I think it’s going really good,” Young said about his rookie season. “I mean, I definitely could be better, knocking down shots, making more shots. But for me, doing what I’m doing without making threes, I think is a good thing. I mean, I’m doing pretty good.”

Trae Young speaking to reporters after the Hawks loss in Brooklyn in December. 

He is.

With all the talk about his shooting percentage and turnovers, things most rookies struggle with, people are missing the many positives he brings as a rookie. Young’s ability to finish around the rim at his size, his court vision and his uncanny ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line have all been extremely impressive.

“Obviously, [Young] hasn’t shot the ball well from three this year and part of the education and conversation with him is shot selection,” Hawks’ coach Lloyd Pierce told me after that December game in Brooklyn, in which Young posted 13 points and 10 assists.

Young is confident his shooting will come around.

“For me, I know why I’m missing now. I’m shooting flat, I’m not getting enough arch on it. I’m not doing the things that I’ve been doing since I was 5-years-old,” he said. “So, I think it’s just getting in the gym more, getting back to my mechanics. That’s gonna come.”

So, you’re confident your shooting will come? “My confidence never varies.”

Vince Carter, in his 21^st season in the NBA, thinks Young will be just fine if he focuses on the most important thing: being a point guard.

“The most important thing [for Young], outside of everything, is learning how to run his team,” Carter said after the Brooklyn game. “When you’re a point guard you have a huge responsibility. Coming in as a 2 through 5, you have some responsibility, but as a point guard, running the team, having the keys at this young age, it’s a huge responsibility. I think these are the growing pains that he will go through that will help him last as long as he wants to in the league.”

“We always talk about ‘oh his shooting,’” Carter said mimicking Young’s critics, “and we talk about the percentage or we talk about his assists. None of that matters, you have to run your team.”

Running a team and being a traditional point guard is something that Young seems very comfortable with, evidenced by his high assist numbers despite the lack of any proven scorers around him. Young, for one, is also confident in his playmaking abilities.

“I just feel like I’m smarter than my opponent. I think I can out-think my opponent, whether it’s knowing how to get fouled or knowing where my teammates are at. I’m a cerebral point guard.”

His coach is on the same page.

“Because he has the skill to facilitate for other guys, he can get 10 assists pretty much every night. I think he had 10 again tonight and I thought he had a great floor game,” Pierce continued in December.

If you take away the hype, the unfair comparisons or the infatuation with other rookies, Trae Young is having a rookie season comparable to anyone in his draft class. He has already proven to be an elite passer at this level, having been top ten in assists for the majority of the season. He is one of two rookies to be top ten in a major category (the Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson is currently 10^th in blocks).

Young has been even more impressive since we talked in December. In his last 12 games, starting with the Brooklyn game, Young is averaging 15.4 points, 7.6 assists and is shooting 44% from the field and, get this, 50% from three-point range.

Young is clearly “doing pretty good” in this his rookie season and his trajectory is pointing up. Haters be damned.

Twitter: @Blacketologist